Friday, May 3, 2013

The Nomination Is In: The Kentucky Oaks-Kentucky Derby Double

Close Hatches Winning the G2 Gazelle 4/6/13
I don't know what it is about the Oaks-Derby double that I enjoy so much? I think its the feeling of being alive after day one and having that little extra to look forward to the next day.

I love the fillies, but I pay no attention to Juvenile fillies and almost no attention to the 3 YOs until the Kentucky Oaks every year. It adds excitement for me to see for the first time these wonderful race horses, like a big wrapped box on Christmas morning. The fillies, quite frankly,  have been more engaging to me over the past several years than the colts, and today is the first time I've really spent anytime looking at the past performances of Dreaming of Julia or Unlimited Budget, Midnight Lucky, Beholder or my pick, Closing Hatches, and I like what I see.

I bored my readers (blowhard bald guy pontificating again) about my layer handicapper method in my extensive Kentucky Derby blog post yesterday. I won't bore you again. I have three horses that I think can win and I won't get hung up on who actually wins, but clearly I'd prefer the longer odds on the board which should be Mott's Gazelle Winner, Closing Hatches.

Let's get after it!

The track is currently listed as FAST. I think we'll get lucky and it will stay fast before the rains come. That's what I'm handicapping.

I like the progressive improvement of Close Hatches and the work she's done over the Churchill surface, and Rosario is smoking hot right now, 48% winner at CD and 25% winner overall.  Wow!

I'm going to Play 11-4-8 with a bunch of horses from the Derby, and hopefully Close Hatches brings value on the front end of the bet, or someone like Overanalyze or Revolutionary brings value on the backend.

Either way, fun times, good stuff.  The Turk is headed to the Black Eyed Susan and the Preakness in two weeks and he is VERY excited.

Turk Out!

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