Saturday, May 4, 2013

Wire Players "Dirty" Derby Dozen and betting the Derby "Tiznow" Style

The Staff at Turk Central working on Oaks Handicap
Some of the brightest minds in horse racing come together every year to handicap the possible winners of the Kentucky Derby.   The Wire Players Derby Dozen might not be that collection of intellects because they let yours truly actually have a say.  They may revoke my privileges next year as my top pick is Overanalyze and he is somewhere outside of the esteemed group's top 12. No matter, I'll never be accused of esteem, or intelligence!

Do I love Overanalyze?  Not at all, but I'm also not sold on any of the horses that will go off at less than 6-1.  So what's a horse player to do?  Have fun.  Keep your bets within reason.  Take chances.  Raise your hand if you had the 38-1 Oaks winner?  I know people who did, and those folks are shrewd value bettors.  Me, not so much.  I don't pay attention to the morning line, but I do look at the tote board and that filly just didn't seem to have any support and I didn't see anything on paper that made me think Princess of Sylmar had anything:  lost ground in Gazelle but did get Place, workouts at Churchill so-so, 4 wins in 6 starts, 5 of 6 in the money.  A sleeper I would not have anticipated.  Know thyself.  Which leads us back to Overanalyze, but more importantly, forget what the talking heads and "experts" are telling you:  There are 10 horses that could win this race and the other 9 shouldn't but could.

I suggest a betting method authored by "Tiznow" Tim Reynolds.

If you need a good way to spend your winnings, please consider a donation to the Tim Reynolds Memorial Fund. Tim was the Horse Racing Fan of the Year and passed away at way too young an age.

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