Sunday, November 2, 2014

Post Race Analysis: Breeders' Cup Classic 2014

Photo Credit: Mark J. Terrill
Photo credit: Kelvin Kuo
I'm not even sure where to begin with my analysis.  Yes, my handicap proved to be a failure, but were the race results a sham based on Bayern's hard turn left out of the gate?

I don't believe for one second it wasn't a planned tactic to get to the rail and cause most of the inside speed to check hard.  It was an aggressive move by Baffert and Garcia, but what did they have to lose? A DQ?  They gambled with the move and then they were rewarded when they weren't punished for their actions.  They gambled.

Is that racing?  Who knows. Actually, by the fact my social media feed is blowing up, mostly in sharp negative reaction to the ruling, lots of horse racing fans think they know the answer to that question.

I lost my Super High Five Bet.  I gambled.  I gambled and bet against Toast of New York, a horse I had no real feel for.  My loss had more to do with my handicapping and less with the aggressive move of Bayern.  That said, horses did check hard, and the way Santa Anita plays, that race was essentially finished at first call.  California Chrome bounced back from the Pennsylvania Derby and ran hard, and I think he wins the race if it's two hops more, but it wasn't.  I think back to watching mighty Zenyatta fall to the back of the pack as Blame took a big lead.  Zenyatta, unlike Shared Belief, rallied on a very different track to make the most heroic run  imaginable.  There was still  11 panels of  running after the start, on a different track, maybe that matters, at Santa Anita, goodnight Irene.  In my pre race Video Analysis earlier this week I suggested I'd try Bayern in the win spot.  "Think long, think wrong" I can hear the toothless guy saying at the OTB.

You can see the Breeders' Cup Classic DRF Race Chart at this link.

The Turk is feeling refreshed after scaling back my blogging efforts over the past year.  I've been blogging since 2008 and I'm not quitting anytime soon.  Now if I could just improve on my ROI for THOROFAN Handicappers Corner posts I'd be a blessed man.

Beware the Breeders' Cup bounce.  Most runners go thud in their next back race.

Turk Out!

No comments: