Friday, November 28, 2014

Post Race Analysis for The Clark Handicap

Hopportunity winning the Rebel- Photo by AP

It doesn't matter sometimes if you are a visionary or just a bit lucky.  Sometimes you can do all the handicapping right and screw up the bet construction,  sometimes you can get it all wrong, or sometimes you can pass on a bet that hits.

My sin today was not betting a Super that I had nailed cold.  I focused on a Tri, didn't like the prospects of getting a return on investment and passed.

 In my pre race handicap, I had some good thoughts, but they hinged around Departing winning and Hopportunity and Constitution giving a very good showing of themselves.  Most of that happened.  I also liked the class of Protonico and the spunk of Pick of the Litter, and that was useful too.

I couldn't settle on a bet.  I ultimately liked this bet the most:

4-1-7 OVER 1-4-7-5-6-9 OVER 1-3-5-6-7-9, a $2 Tri for $134.

It just seemed illogical to me to invest that sort of cash into a race where I had the Tote boards 1-2-3 horses in my top three.  I've mastered the art of turning $100 into $50 at the race track and I try hard to avoid that.

What did I do?  I passed.  I didn't bet.  That's a skill I didn't possess in my 20's and 30's but I developed over time.  I could have bet $134 and made $300, not shabby, but I wasn't feeling it and I passed.  I will say I liked Hopportunity before the race and but I was surprised he took the chalk.  The bettors were right on Departing who will end 2014 on a much lower note than he ended 2013 with.

Moral to the story?  There is no moral, do your homework and assemble my base bet.  I had three horses (in blue) I thought could win and four more I thought had the potential to win the Trifecta. If I boxed them it would have been a losing investment, with a $420 price and a $120 loss.

I'm normally a Superfecta Bettor.  I had the Superfecta nailed.  A boxed bet wouldn't have worked at $1680,returning $1,540 for a $140 loss, but my matrix style Superfecta I normally play would have hit and hit hard:   4-1-7 OVER 1-4-5-6-7-9 OVER 1-3-5-6-7-9 OVER 1-3-5-6-7-9, a $2 bet for $472 would have returned a gain of $1,068.

I never get too emotional about money I leave on the table.  My approach is to treat each win and loss the same, analyze, see if there is anything to glean, and then move on.

Moving on....Turk out!

Thanks DRF 

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