|Hopportunity winning the Rebel- Photo by AP|
It doesn't matter sometimes if you are a visionary or just a bit lucky. Sometimes you can do all the handicapping right and screw up the bet construction, sometimes you can get it all wrong, or sometimes you can pass on a bet that hits.
My sin today was not betting a Super that I had nailed cold. I focused on a Tri, didn't like the prospects of getting a return on investment and passed.
In my pre race handicap, I had some good thoughts, but they hinged around Departing winning and Hopportunity and Constitution giving a very good showing of themselves. Most of that happened. I also liked the class of Protonico and the spunk of Pick of the Litter, and that was useful too.
I couldn't settle on a bet. I ultimately liked this bet the most:
4-1-7 OVER 1-4-7-5-6-9 OVER 1-3-5-6-7-9, a $2 Tri for $134.
It just seemed illogical to me to invest that sort of cash into a race where I had the Tote boards 1-2-3 horses in my top three. I've mastered the art of turning $100 into $50 at the race track and I try hard to avoid that.
What did I do? I passed. I didn't bet. That's a skill I didn't possess in my 20's and 30's but I developed over time. I could have bet $134 and made $300, not shabby, but I wasn't feeling it and I passed. I will say I liked Hopportunity before the race and but I was surprised he took the chalk. The bettors were right on Departing who will end 2014 on a much lower note than he ended 2013 with.
Moral to the story? There is no moral, do your homework and assemble my base bet. I had three horses (in blue) I thought could win and four more I thought had the potential to win the Trifecta. If I boxed them it would have been a losing investment, with a $420 price and a $120 loss.
I'm normally a Superfecta Bettor. I had the Superfecta nailed. A boxed bet wouldn't have worked at $1680,returning $1,540 for a $140 loss, but my matrix style Superfecta I normally play would have hit and hit hard: 4-1-7 OVER 1-4-5-6-7-9 OVER 1-3-5-6-7-9 OVER 1-3-5-6-7-9, a $2 bet for $472 would have returned a gain of $1,068.
I never get too emotional about money I leave on the table. My approach is to treat each win and loss the same, analyze, see if there is anything to glean, and then move on.
Moving on....Turk out!