Sunday, January 4, 2015

Post Race Analysis for The Jerome at Aqueduct

El Kabeir winning Jerome: Photo by NYRA/Adam Coglinese

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  Saturday's handicap was a good example of taking what a race offered, both in the handicap and with the bet construction.  OK, what do you mean by that dribble? I'm trying to say that this was a pretty easy race to decode and bet.  I think El Kabeir is a pretty nice horse, Cairo Prince I don't know, but a nice horse and the field had just a few competent runners and then a bunch of horses that had no business running in a graded stake. I gave out four possible exotic bets pre race and one Super and Tri would have won cash.  Let's recap from the pre race handicap....

a $0.1 Super:  7-9 OVER 4-7-8-9 OVER 1-2-4-6-7-8-9 OVER 1-2-4-6-7-8= $11.20.  The $2 Super paid $559.00 and the ten cent cashed $27.95.

7-9 OVER 4-7-8-8 OVER 1-4-7-8 OVER 1-2-4-6-7-8 =$6.00 BUST ($6.00)

Trifecta:  $0.50  4-7-8-9 OVER 4-7-8-9 OVER 1-4-7-8-9= $18  (Bust $18)

Trifecta $1.00 7-9 OVER 4-7-8-9 OVER 1-4-6-7-8=$22 or $11 for a $0.50 lottery ticket which paid $90.75.

Just betting the four bets dumb would have returned $118.70 with a net return of $72.50.

As I said pre race, I was more interested in watching the race than having ROI, but I don't invest to lose so a nice 156% ROI on one race is icing on the cake.

So what went well?

  • I didn't value Ostrolenka as high as the bettors did.  I'm not sure what Pletcher's Musket Man son will become, but I hated the Remsen and wasn't sold today.
  • I should have singled El Kabeir but a newly minted 3 YO doesn't deserve that sort of respect.  I looked for value but had him covered.
  • I had General Bellamy in the show spot discounting Royal Burgh.  Pletcher's Street Sense runner also had a poor Remsen and I discounted him at my own peril in my Tri's.  

For anyone new to my blog, The Turk doesn't follow 2 YOs at all, so this is a wondrous time of discovery for me.  "A time of discovery" and "betting cash" isn't always a good mix and often this presents the investor a chance to turn $50 into $25, but racing is also about patterns and pattern identification.  The mixture of quality in this race set up for me a classic scenario with the best horse near the front in my bet construction, the best of the rest covered and the rest tossed.  It doesn't always unfold like that but when it doesn't in hindsight it seems so obvious.

Yes, Kentucky Derby points were awarded blah blah blah...There are MUCH better blogs to address that sort of thing.  Come to think of it, there are much better blogs period, but you must have not got that memo.  I'm glad you didn't and thanks for reading.

Enjoy Friends this Feast of the Epiphany.

Turk Out!

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