Today was very similar to last week's blog posting, where a heavily favored but not yet fully proven chalk took on a field of mixed quality. Last week it was El Kabeir in The Jerome, and this week it is Calculator in The Sham. A sprinter going two turns and running away with it: I question this field as much as I questioned The Jerome's.
Calculator made an impressive run up just before the top of the stretch and ran away with it. Mile and quarter, I dunno but don't think so. Two turns, mile to mile and eighth and boy did he move fluidly under Trujillo.
Take a look!
What did I do well:
- Had Rock Shandy covered into Place. The bettors had him 7th on the board. I saw sharp work at SA.
- I had Pioneerof the West covered for Show. The bettors had him 6th on the board. Good SA pedigree and big Tomlinson at the distance.
- I tossed the 3rd horse on the tote board, Unblunted.
- I tossed the 4th horse on the tote board, Hero Ten All.
On the negative side of the ledger, I missed on St Joe Bay. Looking back at the PPs I can make the pace scenario case that breaking along the rail he'd speed to the front and try to hold on.
Pre race I proposed the following:
$0.10 Supers and $1 Tri's are on the menu.
We could Single Calculator in something like this: $1 Tri: 7- OVER 2-3-5-6 OVER 2-3-5-6-8= $16 This would have paid $110.40 or Net $94.40
OR
$1 Tri: 2-3-5-6-7 OVER 2-3-5-6-7 OVER 2-3-5-6-8= $68 This would have paid $110.40 or Net $42.40
OR
$0.10 Superfecta: 2-3-5-6-7 OVER 2-3-5-6-7 OVER 2-3-5-6-8 OVER 2-3-5-6-8=$16.80 BUST or ($16.80)
Betting the Turk cold would have cost you $100.80 but earned you $220.80 or $120 profit. The ROI is pretty high and not worth calculating.
Have fun friends, the Derby Trail is about to begin.
Turk Out!
No comments:
Post a Comment