Sunday, January 11, 2015

Post Race Analysis for Race Day 10 January 2015; The G3 Sham Stakes at SA


A good handicap and a well crafted bet constructed gives me reason to celebrate with a meaty stick and two fingers of bourbon.  Unfortunately, I'm off the cigars and bourbon as I round myself into the best shape I have been in since the late 90's, but I appreciate the lovely Dita having a cigar to celebrate winning a trifecta based on the Turk's input.

Today was very similar to last week's blog posting, where a heavily favored but not yet fully proven chalk took on a field of mixed quality.  Last week it was El Kabeir in The Jerome, and this week it is Calculator in The Sham.  A sprinter going two turns and running away with it:  I question this field as much as I questioned The Jerome's.

Calculator made an impressive run up just before the top of the stretch and ran away with it.  Mile and quarter, I dunno but don't think so.  Two turns, mile to mile and eighth and boy did he move fluidly under Trujillo.

Take a look!






What did I do well:
  • Had Rock Shandy covered into Place.  The bettors had him 7th on the board.  I saw sharp work at SA.
  •  I had Pioneerof the West covered for Show.  The bettors had him 6th on the board.  Good SA pedigree and big Tomlinson at the distance.
  •  I tossed the 3rd horse on the tote board, Unblunted
  •  I tossed the 4th horse on the tote board, Hero Ten All.  

On the negative side of the ledger, I missed on St Joe Bay.  Looking back at the PPs I can make the pace scenario case that breaking along the rail he'd speed to the front and try to hold on.





Pre race I proposed the following:

$0.10 Supers and $1 Tri's are on the menu.

We could Single Calculator in something like this:  $1 Tri:  7- OVER 2-3-5-6 OVER 2-3-5-6-8= $16  This would have paid $110.40 or Net $94.40

OR

$1 Tri:  2-3-5-6-7 OVER 2-3-5-6-7 OVER 2-3-5-6-8= $68  This would have paid $110.40 or Net $42.40

OR

$0.10 Superfecta:  2-3-5-6-7 OVER 2-3-5-6-7 OVER 2-3-5-6-8 OVER 2-3-5-6-8=$16.80 BUST or ($16.80)

Betting the Turk cold would have cost you $100.80 but earned you $220.80 or $120 profit.  The ROI is pretty high and not worth calculating.  

Have fun friends, the Derby Trail is about to begin.  

Turk Out!

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