Sunday, September 10, 2017

Post Race Results: Kentucky Downs Late Stakes Pick 4 including Turf Cup

Hogy- Photo by Reed Palmer/KY Downs

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.

The stars aligned for me yesterday:  I had time, quiet and a real desire to engage with Kentucky Downs, which has quickly become one of my favorite tracks.  I'm a turf racing/handicap division handicapper to begin with, and this is like a short stay in heaven.  

I spent quite a bit of time inside the past performances of the late all Stakes-
Pick 4, perhaps because I was looking for hidden gems.  Quite frankly, all I saw in everyone of these races was a dividing line in Class, Speed and Form, and I think you'll see visually my handicaps were pretty much dead on with only St. Louie sneaking up on me (as much as a Michael Maker/ Arch son can be ignored) and the lack of response from Enterprising, both in the Turf Cup.  

My ROI on the day was +16% which is well below my opportunity cost of 40%.  You can win and lose, and I know that I may have ended the day a bit up, it's not enough earnings to offset the inevitable losses.  

What did I do wrong:

  • Not singling Miss Temple City.  My personal money line was 1.8-1 and the two additional covers I made cost me $40 dollars in earnings and was the difference between a 400% ROI and 16%.  
  • Undervalued Happy Mesa in Race 8I had her at 40-1.  The Michael Maker was coming in off a very sharp 4F in :47 2/5ths over CD Turf and was making a deep cutback.  
  • before mentioned St. Louie.
What I did right:
    • I had Race 7 dialed in:  Cold Exacta paid $11.80 for $2 bet.  It wasn't complicated and you do get credit for not overthinking. 
    • A four horse Tri Box in Race 9 would have paid $109.80 for $48, $2 bet.  
    •  A five horse Tri Box in Race 10 would have paid $231.20 for a $120, $2 bet. 

Watching Kentucky Downs on Twin Spires TV is like stepping back in time with the quality of the video, the graphics, the lack of camera angles, but I can't say I minded it.  There was something liberating about not having some smarthty talking head rambling non stop.

Happy Sunday Friends.  I'm off to watch my Buffalo Bills (I know, laugh now).  Also, please pray for everyone affected by Hurricane Irma, especially the horses and backstretch workers at the various tracks and farms.

Turk Out!

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