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| Sadlers' Joy ar SAR: (c) NYRA/Chelsea Durand/Adam Coglianese Photography |
My primary target today is a Pick 3 beginning with Race 8, the G1 Vanderbilt Stakes. I may start that P3 with Race 9, the G2 Bowling Green and end it with an OC Turf race with a big field instead of trying to read the tea leafs on the Vanderbilt. Regardless, my focus early is on the Bowling Green and the Grade 2 Jim Dandy, so let's get after it!
I honestly never understood how people could handicap at the track. After taking a course a few semesters ago on how people learn, I realized that my process requires quiet. I get up early and handicap with a cup of coffee and a very quiet house and I generally do pretty well. I wish I could be that guy in Section K of the Clubhouse scribbling away but it's not. Know thyself! I think I know myself pretty well, and boy do I love gutty and honest turf runners like Sadlers' Joy pictured above. I don't know if he'll win or not, but I know he'll show up and contest the route of grass.
Sadlers' Joy is 3 of 4 in the money at SAR, 3 of 4 in the money in 2018, 66% of the time in the money over turf and 71% of the time in the money at this distance. He'll be dragging behind the pace before his speed comes with a very late turn of foot. Trip is so key. Castellano is up while Leparoux is on the long shot Glorious Empire (Ire). Typical effort seen below in the Manhattan G1.
Money Multiplier finishes in Place, alot. 33% Place Finisher, 65% lifetime in the money. Trainer Chad Brown with I. Ortiz, up, are 28% winners at SAR and Brown is a 27% Turf winner. Ok, not stunning effort in the United Nations I posted below.
Hi Happy (Arg) has been a fun horse to watch this year. 4 of 4 in the money in 2018. He'll be the one that Sadlers' Joy will have to race past if he wants to win. Take a look at him repulsing Sadler's Joy in the G1 ManOWar below.
I like Bigger Picture and Highland Sky with late speed to possibly get into the ticket. It's hard to not like a Mott horse but 4 YO Channel Maker I need to see more from but no denying his late speed either.
G1 United Nations
G1 Manhattan
G1 ManOWar en Espanol for Hi Happy (Arg)
In the Jim Dandy we are faced with a five horse field, of which 50% odds of winning have been placed on the 5 horse Vino Rosso. I'm feeling contrarian and I'm making a case of Mark Casse's Flameaway. Watch him crumble badly here at the top of the stretch.
The G3 Ohio Derby
This is a good horse, a Scat Daddy Ontario Bred. Reride should be the only other early speed.
Vino Rosso won the Wood Memorial and is a solid Curlin, but 1-1 odds? Let's look at the Tampa Derby where he finished up the track from the Place finisher, Flameaway.
I take nothing away from Vino Rosso, he didn't set his own odds, Less experienced players may want to just single Vino Rosso in a multi race exotic horizontal bet. I'm less interested in winning small as I am in risking small to make big. I'll be curious where his odds are at post time.
Another Curlin, Tenfold should not be completely discounted.
I'll be building bets later today and you'll find my thoughts on Twitter later (you can find me on the link in the right header of my blog).
Last week's Blog Post I featured just two races, the Diana and the CCA Oaks.
While I "won" both bets, I hunted for value in the CCA Oaks and didn't get it. On $16 wagered I returned $55.60 for a $39.60 profit.
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| The G1 Diana at SAR 7/21/18: DRF PDF Chart |
I really like that Sistercharlie (Ire) and so did the bettors. It was me being less concerned about a small wager return or a loss and inserting Ultra Brat and Hawkmoor, the 4th and 5th horses in my handicap, to finish in the Place exacta spot that made the bet. Once you reach that place as a gambler that you'll sacrifice capital for larger strikes you'll....get humbled back or go broke! Always bet within your means.
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| G1 CCA Oaks at SAR 7/22; DRF PDF Chart |
I'd like to wish Justify a happy retirement as well. I've now been alive for 5 Triple Crown Winners and it's nice that I most likely will never have a time in my life again where there are no living Triple Crown winners, as that was a bit depressing. I wagered $556 in the Triple Crown Season on almost no handicapping as I was deep into my final semester of school and I am also wildly busy at work. I returned $857.25 for a $301 profit. While not a great ROI, I considered it easy money. My only losing bet was a Preakness bet against Justify. Like I said, I'd rather lose now and then but take swings at long balls because if I would have connected that would have been a four figure payout.
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| Turk's Twin Spires Account Bet log: Triple Crown |
Have fun friends, Turk Out!
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