The Nominations are In: The Grade 1 Diana and the Grade 1 CCA Oaks at Saratoga

Dacita winning the Diana in 2016; Photo NYRA

Welcome friends to the Turk and the (now not so) Little Turk blog, now in our eleventh season of blogging about thoroughbred horses.  To anyone that knows The Turk, they know that he likes Turf and he likes older runners.  Call me old fashioned.  I got my start in handicapping in 1986.  I was already a horse racing fan, growing up around family members like my dear Aunt Rosie who loved the ponies.  In 1986 I found myself living in Saratoga Springs on Jumel Place, a short walk from the track, and one day I grabbed the form and....had no idea what I was doing.  In Turk fashion, I read, I read, and I read a bit more to learn from others what I didn't know myself.  My handicapping combines elements of Tom Ainsile, Brad Free, Steve Davidowitz and Robert J. Summers, The Buffalo News "Happy Handicapper", Rest in Peace.

 I like to think of my handicapping as a derivative of each of these gentleman handicappers, clumped together into Turk style.  I like data.  I watch video, I crunch fractional split times, and my greatest strength is combining good handicapping with solid betting strategy.  I haven't blogged much in 2018 as I was finishing an MBA.  My MBA armed me with all kinds of new techniques to know that these race track investments are highly speculative.  You can say you want to scratch out a 15% ROI, but the track smacks that type of talk out of you quickly.  I ride streaks of 500% ROIs and streaks of -500% ROI's.  It happens.  I'm happy to break even, scratch out a small profit, because for me, I'm here for the relaxation it brings me and the thrill of the animals. I'm here for mares like Dacita, pictured above, a beautiful Beverly D G1 winner and Scat Daddy daughter, winning the Diana in 2016 for Chad Brown, looking to win this race for a third straight year, which I think he has a great shot at today.

I've featured the Diana for today and the CCA Oaks for tomorrow at the Spa.  Let's get after it!





You can find the track conditions, scratches and changes and equipment changes for NYRA/Saratoga here.  Today looks bone dry BUT beginning later tonight and it looks like tomorrow will be wet.  You'll find the Saratoga Springs hour by hour weather here.

With a seven horse field in the Diana, my first thought is I have two of Chad Brown's three entries one-two with Sistercharlie and A Raving Beauty, with Brendan Walsh's 4 YO 2X Saratoga winner Proctor's Ledge the best upset candidate.

Sistercharlie (Ire) has the best Timeform US Pace Fig late at 131.  6 of 7 in the money on Turf and 7 of 8 in the money lifetime.  Brown is 27% over a route of grass.  Lost by a head last time out to Fourstar Crook in the G2 New York.  Sistercharlie was 28 lengths back, yes 28 lengths and was coming late. With 1/8 less, with this cutback she'll need to be closer, obviously!  You have to watch this video.






German bred A Raving Beauty is a 5 YO Mastercraftsman (Ire).  Ortiz and Brown are 29% winners together.  Two wins in two starts in North America.  Edged Proctor's Ledge in the G1 Just a Game in early June.




I think Proctor's Ledge likes softer grass than she'll find today with her last two wins over good turf and her last win over firm turf six starts back.

Ultra Brat comes in off a win over soft turf in the Galorette G3 at Pimlico.




The 5 YO Uncle Mo Motion trained runner is 3 of 4 in the money in 2018.

Hawksmoor (Ire) in those  Barbaro silks of Lael Stables has the best Timeform US early pace fig at 114.  Trained by Arnauld Delacour, if you're looking for a price this isn't a bad one.

I'm going to keep it simple with a $2 Exacta 1-(7 and 5) (Sistercharlie over Hawksmoor and Ultrabrat) for $4.

A rather small 5 filly field will challenge each other in Sunday's Grade 1 CCA Oaks G1.  Just because, let's go off on a tangent and watch Ruffian set the race record when it was a 1 1/2 mile race at Belmont. 1975.  I was 9. I looked forward to reading Sports Illustrated every week.  I think it was a good way to live, but hard to beat the instant information age 9 YO's live in now.




Midnight Bisou, a Midnight Lute, is my tepid chalk.  A big win under big money Mike Smith in the Grade 2 Mother Goose last time out.  A 4 horse affair.




Monomoy Girl will be the post time favorite, of this I am sure.  7 win sin 8 starts and 8 of 8 in the Money lifetime for the Kentucky Oaks winner. Dominant that day.



I like Eskimo Kisses late speed and Chocolate Martini is a solid, not spectacular filly.  Gio Game shouldn't be a factor. 

$2 Exacta Box:  2-4-3 for $12. 

I handicapped the San Diego Handicap at Del Mar only to be typing this blog and have at least 4 horses scratch in a 10 horse field, including Accelerate.  Yawn. 

Have fun with it friends.  Turk Out!