Breeders' Cup 2018 Handicapping Homework: The Breeders' Cup Turf Video Review

Breeders' Cup Turf; Photo Harry How/Getty Images

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.

The purpose of this post is to provide the last two and sometimes three races of each entrant in the G1 Breeders' Cup Turf. 

The goal one week out is just to get a feel for the runners and link the past performances to the visual handicapping.  I'll come back tomorrow and start adding my notes and observations for each race.  It's alot of effort that I'll only invest into 3, perhaps 4 races over the coming Breeders' Cup weekend.  Any other betting I do will be done using a tote board handicapping method, strictly taking some low risk/medium reward cracks at positive ROI.

The following are covered here:

• Arlow 4 YO colt.  Sycamore, Kentucky Turf Cup. 
• Channel Maker 4 YO gelding.  Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, Sword Dancer, Bowling Green, Manhattan.
• Crystal Ocean (GB) 4 YO colt.  Championship Stakes and September Stakes.
• Enable (GB) 4 YO Mare.  Prix Arc de Triomphe and September Stakes.
• Glorious Empire (Ire) 7 YO gelding.   Sword Dancer and Bowling Green.
• Hi Happy (Arg) 6 YO Horse.  Knickerbocker, Sword Dancer, Bowling Green and Manhattan
• Hunting Horn (Ire) 3 YO Colt.  Arc de Triomphe and Secretariat Stakes
• Liam the Charmer 5 YO gelding.  John Henry Turf Championship
• Magical (Ire) 3 YO Filly.  British Championship Stakes and Arc de Triomphe
• Quarteto de Cordas (Brz) 4 YO colt. Mathias Machline.  
• Roaring Lion 3 YO colt.  QE2 Stakes and Irish Championship Stakes
• Robert Bruce (Chi) 4 YO Colt.  Joe Hirsch Turf Classic and Arlington Million
• Sadler's Joy 5 YO horse.  Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, Sword Dancer, Bowling Green, Manhattan.
• Talismanic (GB) 5 YO Horse (2017 BC Turf Winner).  Arc de Triomphe and Prix Foy
• Waldgeist (GB) 4 YO Colt.  Arc de Triomphe, Prix Foy, Prix Saint Cloud

Return back to my blog, The Turk and the Little Turk,  all week leading up to the Breeders' Cup for more content.



The Sycamore G3:  Kee.  Good Turf. 1 1/2 Miles.  18 October 2018




The Kentucky Turf Cup G3;  Kentucky Downs. Good Turf.  1 1/2 Miles.  8 Sept 2018




Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational G1. Belmont.  Soft Turf.  1 1/2 Miles.  29 September 2018




Sword Dancer G1: Saratoga.  Firm Turf. 1 1/2 Miles.  25 August 2018




September Stakes G3: Kempton (UK).  Firm Turf. 1 1/2 Miles RH.  8 September 2018



Knickerbocker G2;  Belmont. Good Turf.  1 1/8 Miles.  8 October 2018




The Bowling Green G2;  Saratoga.  Soft Turf. 1 3/8 Miles.   28 July 2018



Secretariat Stakes G1; Arlington Park.  Good Turf.  1 1/4 Miles.  11 August 2018




Prix de l' Arc de Triomphe G1.  Longchamp (Fr).  Firm Turf. 1 1/2 Miles RH.  7 October 2018



Champions Stakes G1. Ascot (GB).  Soft Turf.  1 1/4 Miles RH. 20 October 2018




John Henry Turf Championship G2.  Santa Anita.  Firm. 1 1/4 Miles.  30 September 2018




British Championship Stakes G1 (F).  Ascot (GB). Soft Turf. 1 1/2 Miles RH. 20 Oct 2018

Magical (IRE)




Mathias Machline (G1).  Gavea (Brz). Heavy Turf. 1 1/4 Miles LH.  4 August 2018



The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes G1.  Ascot (GB).  Soft Turf. 1 Mile.  20 Oct 2018



Irish Championship Stakes G1.  Leopardstown (Ire).  Good.  1 1/4 Miles  LH.  15 September 2018



Arlington Million G1.  Arlington Park.  Firm.  1 1/4 Miles.  11 August 2018



Manhattan Stakes G1.  Belmont.  Firm Turf. 1 1/4 Miles. 9 June 2018




Prix Foy G2. Longchamp (Fr). Firm. 1 1/2 Miles RH. 16 September 2018




Prix de Saint Cloud G1.  Saint Cloud (Fr).  Good/Soft.  1 1/2 Miles LH. 1 July 2018

The Nomination Is In: The Dowager G3 over Turf at Keeneland

Photo by: Keeneland

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog.

I've wanted to play Keeneland for the past few weeks but work was busy, I was traveling quite a bit, and I just ran out of time.  With few graded stakes left in the meet, I think Sunday's Dowager is my last opportunity for 2018.

I don't play Keeneland very much.  Like, Del Mar, I gave up on the track during the fake dirt years.  The 19.5% takeout on Exactas (NYRA currently 18.5%, Arlington on Million Day 20.5%) is high but that's not a cross I carry around like many social media whales, my investing volumes are too low to get hung up on that.  I think I just have other options usually and it's not a track that I'm quick to play.  That said, I love the grounds, the tradition and the turf course especially.

I'm taking a bit of a handicapper's holiday over past few weeks as I gear up for Breeders' Cup Weekend.  I did however blog, and win, The Laurel Park Maryland Million Classic Exacta, providing a $1 dollar bet for $24 that returned $82.10.  Low risk, good reward.

Anyway, lets get after this 1 1/2 mile Turf affair at Keeneland.  Expect cold but dry conditions.  The turf was yielding today but you can find the latest here, part of Keeneland's player friendly website.  Laurel Park: You need to step up your web services!




I like the betting potential of this race that is lacking serious chalk.  I identified Daring Duchess and Savannah Belle as my top two. 

Daring Duchess is 6 of 9 in the money at this distance and 13 of 26 in the money over grass.  The 6 YO mare from Arch is winless in 5 KEE starts with only 1 Place to show for those trips.  Added 6 pounds from last time out.  A flat runner, I'll expect her on or near the pace the whole way.  If the turf is Yielding or Soft I'll like her less although she had a nice outing over good turf at this distance two races back.

4 YO Savannah Belle is trained by Brian Lynch, a 22% stakes winner but also only 1 win in 7 starts at KEE over past rolling year.  295 Tomlinson at the distance with an asterisk for sample size, she does have a Place at this distance, making her the only other to hit the board at this distance besides Daring Duchess.  Late runner. 

Vexatious was winless in six starts as a 3 YO last year and has only 2  wins in 12 starts lifetime.  1  win in 4 turf starts and last time out her running line was "...passed tiring foes" as she finished 6 1/4 lengths back at today's distance. A winner at 1 3/8 miles at Del Mar in August in a minor stake.  7 dirt starts.  Classy and ready for a breakout possibly.  Late runner.

Amboseli hasn't done much lately.  The 6 YO has only 3 Show finishes to show for her last 10 starts over past two seasons.  13 of 22 in the money lifetime with 8 Shows in 22 starts.  Late runner.

Res Ipsa is a 5 YO English Channel with a great closing turn of foot.  Winless in 6 starts in 2018, 12 of 21 lifetime in the money over grass.  First time at the distance but ran well at Kentucky Downs at 1 5/16 miles.  Last win past 1 mile?  October 2017 at KEE in a $70K Alw at 1 1/16.

My three wildcards are:

 English Affair who is coupled to Trainer Arnold and Pilot B. Hernandez, a combo that wins 23% of the time at KEE. Winless in 4 starts in 2018 and first time at this distance.  First KEE start.  6 of 9 in the money over grass lifetime.  Bullet work, 1st of 54 at 4f at CD over dirt this month. 

Viva Vegas also makes first start at distance.  The 4 YO The Factor daughter as you would expect has a 315 Tomlinson with an asterisk.  Placed in G3 Violet at Monmouth. Early speed.

Shezaprado is slow out of gate but has 111 Timeform US Pace fig late.  226 Tomlinson at the distance which the 4 YO Filly has tried once.  5 wins in 17 turf starts.  Last win two races back on 6 Sept at Kentucky Downs at 1 5/16.  She ran back 7 days later and made a mild bid and then followed that up with a work at KEE earlier this month.

I'm tossing 3 YO Rahway and  main track specialist Beach Flower from my exactas, maybe foolishly at least with Rahway.  Sired by Eskendereya, has a KEE win aand a bullet work over turf earlier this month.  I'm a bit intrigued at what should be a big price. 

What to do with all this?  I'll be assembling an exacta but I want to see the toteboard odds before I lock in. a $1  5-3 OVER 10-6-8-1-2-4-9 for $16 is my initial thought.

Have fun friends!

Turk Out.

The Nomination Is In: The Maryland Million Classic at Laurel Park

Jim McKay.  Photo: Blood Horse

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, a horse racing analysis blog serving a rabid audience since 2008.  I'd like to thank The Thorofan for allowing me the opportunity to talk to their members and readers of The Handicappers Corner as well.


Jim McKay, a 40+ year legendary broadcaster of sports loved horse racing and he loved his home state of Maryland. You could say Jim was inspired to create the Maryland Million Day after attending the 1984 Breeders' Cup, the first one, at Hollywood Park (Ehalt, 2016).    He envisioned a spectacular day of championship racing, and one that highlighted Maryland Breds and Maryland Sires.  It is Maryland Racing's day.  His vision has never been more apparent to me after looking at the Past Performances for The Maryland Million Classic, the feature race, with the best three horses Also Eligible, including last years winner, Bonus Points.  It's doubtful that 9-5 ML Hammerin Aamer, 5-2 Belfour and 7-5 Bonus Points  reach the gate because they "...are Maryland-bred but not Maryland-sired and, thus, not likely to draw in.  Maryland Million races are limited to Maryland-sired horses as long as six or more face the starter. With 10 Maryland-sired runners entered in the Classic, it’s exceedingly unlikely that any of the also-eligible runners will end up in the race" (Vespe, 2018)."  

So what do we have on our hands?  A wide open, very interesting betting race.  Let's Get after it!




I think there is a a slight chance Crouchelli scratches as the 3 YO is entered in the 10th as well.  At the time of writing this I can't determine that yet.  If any of the top three are entered it completely changes my thinking and I'm singling that horse to win and playing some longer prices below below for the exacta.  If two of those three horses make the starting field, I most likely pass on the betting opportunity.

Let's assume none of them are in the gate for our purposes.

I have a group of three I'm looking at to win, with Admiral Blue, Flash McCaul and Saratoga Bob all about the same to me.  Of them:

• 1 win at the distance, Admiral Blue, who is 3 of 8 in the money at the distance.  
• No last time winners.  Only Admiral Blue hit the board, a Show finish in a $50K Claimer
• Admiral Blue is winless in 15 fast dirt tries. 
• Admiral Blue drops 6 pounds from last time out

I think I just made my tepid case for Admiral Blue as my chalk for the race.  From the 9 spot he'll need his early tactical speed to position himself.  I'm torn on where he's breaking from and trip and pace will be key if he is going to break his fast dirt goose egg.

I think Flash McCaul will enter the gate as the bettors favorite.  8 of 17 in the money at Laurel Park with 3 wins, but none at the distance.  The five year old breaks for 25% winner at Laurel Park, conditioner Michael Trombetta.  His post draw is good and its conceivable he will be well positioned to let out his late speed.  

Saratoga Bob is 6 of 7 in the money at Laurel Park and on fast dirt, but the distance is new.  Prado up for Trainer Voss.  His race 2 back, a 6F $38.5K Alw, he came back from a bad start, was five wide, and had a great closing kick.  His last race out he was bumped at start, 5 wide and faded.  

As I'm looking at this field, I like Clubman, Pal Cal, Dothatdance and Crouchelli as possible place finishers.  

Clubman trains well with two sharp bullet works on his past performance line and he has improving Beyers.  Hideous performance in the afternoons though as he's winless in 4 starts in 2018 and winless at the distance.  5 wins in 16 starts in 2017.  Of the group of non potential winners I've listed he's the one that could throw that apple cart over.  I need to see what the bettors think of him just before post time but I'm expecting they will like him as possibly 2nd best of the field.

I'm not sure what I'm doing with all of this yet, but exacta and 10 cent Super is most likely what I'll construct.  An idea of a 10 Cent Super is:

3-4-7-9 OVER 3-4-6-7-9 OVER 1-2-3-4-6-7-9 OVER 1-2-3-6-7-9 for $28.40.  I typed it, I read it, and I mostly hate it.  I'll sharpen my pencil and hone in on something more like:

3-4-9 OVER 3-4-7-9 OVER 3-4-7-9 OVER 1-2-5-7-8-10 for $9.60.  

I just gave you two Supers and I can't say I like either very much, but they are plausible.  I prefer Exactas and I'll be playing some version of combination in my base Handicap with possible winners 9-4-7-3 and Possible Place 6-2-1.  If I just bundle that together:

$1 exacta 3-4-7-9 OVER 3-4-7-9-6-2-1  $24.  I think I'm close to what my bet will look like now and I'll forget those Supers.

Have fun friends.

Turk Out!

References Cited

Ehalt, Bob.  2016, October 10.  Legacy of Jim McKay: Beloved Racing Voice and Visionaire.  Web.  America's Best Racing.  Retrieved from:  https://www.americasbestracing.net/the-sport/2016-legacy-jim-mckay-beloved-racing-voice-and-visionaire

Vespe, Frank.  2018 Oct 17.  Md. Million Classic: Trainers Voss and Maldonado approaching from Different Directions.  Web.  The Racing Biz.  Retrieved from: https://www.theracingbiz.com/2018/10/17/md-million-classic-trainers-voss-maldonado-approaching-from-different-directions/