 |
| Photo by: Keeneland |
I've wanted to play Keeneland for the past few weeks but work was busy, I was traveling quite a bit, and I just ran out of time. With few graded stakes left in the meet, I think Sunday's Dowager is my last opportunity for 2018.
I don't play Keeneland very much. Like, Del Mar, I gave up on the track during the fake dirt years. The 19.5% takeout on Exactas (NYRA currently 18.5%, Arlington on Million Day 20.5%) is high but that's not a cross I carry around like many social media whales, my investing volumes are too low to get hung up on that. I think I just have other options usually and it's not a track that I'm quick to play. That said, I love the grounds, the tradition and the turf course especially.
I'm taking a bit of a handicapper's holiday over past few weeks as I gear up for Breeders' Cup Weekend. I did however blog, and win, The Laurel Park Maryland Million Classic Exacta, providing a $1 dollar bet for $24 that returned $82.10. Low risk, good reward.
Anyway, lets get after this 1 1/2 mile Turf affair at Keeneland. Expect cold but dry conditions. The turf was yielding today but you can find the latest here, part of Keeneland's player friendly website. Laurel Park: You need to step up your web services!
I like the betting potential of this race that is lacking serious chalk. I identified Daring Duchess and Savannah Belle as my top two.
Daring Duchess is 6 of 9 in the money at this distance and 13 of 26 in the money over grass. The 6 YO mare from Arch is winless in 5 KEE starts with only 1 Place to show for those trips. Added 6 pounds from last time out. A flat runner, I'll expect her on or near the pace the whole way. If the turf is Yielding or Soft I'll like her less although she had a nice outing over good turf at this distance two races back.
4 YO Savannah Belle is trained by Brian Lynch, a 22% stakes winner but also only 1 win in 7 starts at KEE over past rolling year. 295 Tomlinson at the distance with an asterisk for sample size, she does have a Place at this distance, making her the only other to hit the board at this distance besides Daring Duchess. Late runner.
Vexatious was winless in six starts as a 3 YO last year and has only 2 wins in 12 starts lifetime. 1 win in 4 turf starts and last time out her running line was "...passed tiring foes" as she finished 6 1/4 lengths back at today's distance. A winner at 1 3/8 miles at Del Mar in August in a minor stake. 7 dirt starts. Classy and ready for a breakout possibly. Late runner.
Amboseli hasn't done much lately. The 6 YO has only 3 Show finishes to show for her last 10 starts over past two seasons. 13 of 22 in the money lifetime with 8 Shows in 22 starts. Late runner.
Res Ipsa is a 5 YO English Channel with a great closing turn of foot. Winless in 6 starts in 2018, 12 of 21 lifetime in the money over grass. First time at the distance but ran well at Kentucky Downs at 1 5/16 miles. Last win past 1 mile? October 2017 at KEE in a $70K Alw at 1 1/16.
My three wildcards are:
English Affair who is coupled to Trainer Arnold and Pilot B. Hernandez, a combo that wins 23% of the time at KEE. Winless in 4 starts in 2018 and first time at this distance. First KEE start. 6 of 9 in the money over grass lifetime. Bullet work, 1st of 54 at 4f at CD over dirt this month.
Viva Vegas also makes first start at distance. The 4 YO The Factor daughter as you would expect has a 315 Tomlinson with an asterisk. Placed in G3 Violet at Monmouth. Early speed.
Shezaprado is slow out of gate but has 111 Timeform US Pace fig late. 226 Tomlinson at the distance which the 4 YO Filly has tried once. 5 wins in 17 turf starts. Last win two races back on 6 Sept at Kentucky Downs at 1 5/16. She ran back 7 days later and made a mild bid and then followed that up with a work at KEE earlier this month.
I'm tossing 3 YO Rahway and main track specialist Beach Flower from my exactas, maybe foolishly at least with Rahway. Sired by Eskendereya, has a KEE win aand a bullet work over turf earlier this month. I'm a bit intrigued at what should be a big price.
What to do with all this? I'll be assembling an exacta but I want to see the toteboard odds before I lock in. a $1 5-3 OVER 10-6-8-1-2-4-9 for $16 is my initial thought.
Have fun friends!
Turk Out.
No comments:
Post a Comment