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| Jim McKay. Photo: Blood Horse |
Jim McKay, a 40+ year legendary broadcaster of sports loved horse racing and he loved his home state of Maryland. You could say Jim was inspired to create the Maryland Million Day after attending the 1984 Breeders' Cup, the first one, at Hollywood Park (Ehalt, 2016). He envisioned a spectacular day of championship racing, and one that highlighted Maryland Breds and Maryland Sires. It is Maryland Racing's day. His vision has never been more apparent to me after looking at the Past Performances for The Maryland Million Classic, the feature race, with the best three horses Also Eligible, including last years winner, Bonus Points. It's doubtful that 9-5 ML Hammerin Aamer, 5-2 Belfour and 7-5 Bonus Points reach the gate because they "...are Maryland-bred but not Maryland-sired and, thus, not likely to draw in. Maryland Million races are limited to Maryland-sired horses as long as six or more face the starter. With 10 Maryland-sired runners entered in the Classic, it’s exceedingly unlikely that any of the also-eligible runners will end up in the race" (Vespe, 2018)."
So what do we have on our hands? A wide open, very interesting betting race. Let's Get after it!
I think there is a a slight chance Crouchelli scratches as the 3 YO is entered in the 10th as well. At the time of writing this I can't determine that yet. If any of the top three are entered it completely changes my thinking and I'm singling that horse to win and playing some longer prices below below for the exacta. If two of those three horses make the starting field, I most likely pass on the betting opportunity.
Let's assume none of them are in the gate for our purposes.
I have a group of three I'm looking at to win, with Admiral Blue, Flash McCaul and Saratoga Bob all about the same to me. Of them:
- 1 win at the distance, Admiral Blue, who is 3 of 8 in the money at the distance.
- No last time winners. Only Admiral Blue hit the board, a Show finish in a $50K Claimer
- Admiral Blue is winless in 15 fast dirt tries.
- Admiral Blue drops 6 pounds from last time out
I think I just made my tepid case for Admiral Blue as my chalk for the race. From the 9 spot he'll need his early tactical speed to position himself. I'm torn on where he's breaking from and trip and pace will be key if he is going to break his fast dirt goose egg.
I think Flash McCaul will enter the gate as the bettors favorite. 8 of 17 in the money at Laurel Park with 3 wins, but none at the distance. The five year old breaks for 25% winner at Laurel Park, conditioner Michael Trombetta. His post draw is good and its conceivable he will be well positioned to let out his late speed.
Saratoga Bob is 6 of 7 in the money at Laurel Park and on fast dirt, but the distance is new. Prado up for Trainer Voss. His race 2 back, a 6F $38.5K Alw, he came back from a bad start, was five wide, and had a great closing kick. His last race out he was bumped at start, 5 wide and faded.
As I'm looking at this field, I like Clubman, Pal Cal, Dothatdance and Crouchelli as possible place finishers.
Clubman trains well with two sharp bullet works on his past performance line and he has improving Beyers. Hideous performance in the afternoons though as he's winless in 4 starts in 2018 and winless at the distance. 5 wins in 16 starts in 2017. Of the group of non potential winners I've listed he's the one that could throw that apple cart over. I need to see what the bettors think of him just before post time but I'm expecting they will like him as possibly 2nd best of the field.
I'm not sure what I'm doing with all of this yet, but exacta and 10 cent Super is most likely what I'll construct. An idea of a 10 Cent Super is:
3-4-7-9 OVER 3-4-6-7-9 OVER 1-2-3-4-6-7-9 OVER 1-2-3-6-7-9 for $28.40. I typed it, I read it, and I mostly hate it. I'll sharpen my pencil and hone in on something more like:
3-4-9 OVER 3-4-7-9 OVER 3-4-7-9 OVER 1-2-5-7-8-10 for $9.60.
I just gave you two Supers and I can't say I like either very much, but they are plausible. I prefer Exactas and I'll be playing some version of combination in my base Handicap with possible winners 9-4-7-3 and Possible Place 6-2-1. If I just bundle that together:
$1 exacta 3-4-7-9 OVER 3-4-7-9-6-2-1 $24. I think I'm close to what my bet will look like now and I'll forget those Supers.
Have fun friends.
Turk Out!
References Cited
Ehalt, Bob. 2016, October 10. Legacy of Jim McKay: Beloved Racing Voice and Visionaire. Web. America's Best Racing. Retrieved from: https://www.americasbestracing.net/the-sport/2016-legacy-jim-mckay-beloved-racing-voice-and-visionaire
Vespe, Frank. 2018 Oct 17. Md. Million Classic: Trainers Voss and Maldonado approaching from Different Directions. Web. The Racing Biz. Retrieved from: https://www.theracingbiz.com/2018/10/17/md-million-classic-trainers-voss-maldonado-approaching-from-different-directions/
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