The Nomination Is In: The Pegasus World Cup Turf International G1 at GP

Ivar: Photo Bloodhorse

 Welcome back to The Turk Blog, where I previously handicapped Race 11, the Pegasus World Cup  Filly and Mare Turf G3 and today we target Race 12, the Pegasus World Cup Turf Cup G1.  

 So much nuance on the past performances, especially for older runners over routes of grass.  My base handicap tries to ignore the pace scenario and focus on ranking who the best horses are, in order, and then a fair line is set.  The fair line is set to 100% while the Morning Line is calibrated to track takeout, ever increasing track takeout.  I don't get hung up on the percentages too much, but the ordering of the horses and where I think they may finish relative to an exacta bet, the focal point of this blog.  So much nuance with this group.  That handsome fella to the left is Ivar, the b7 year old son of Agnes Gold (JPN) from Sunday Silence.  They really can bred the turf runners in South America.  

I am just going to post my base handicap for now.  I spent so much time building it I ran out of time to prattle on about the video I pulled on many of them.

The Pegasus World Cup Turf International G1; 1 1/8 Miles on expected Firm Turf for 4 YO and Up

I'm going to go deep with this one, taking my Win and Place horses into the exacta:  My initial thoughts just to memorialize it is:  $2 Exacta: 10/12 OVER 10-12-6-2-7-9 for $20.

Enjoy the racing friends!

Turk Out.

The Nomination Is In: The $500,000 Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf G3 at Gulfstream Park

 

Welcome friends to The Turk blog, where we focus on turf racing, handicapping and exacta building.  My focus is narrow by choice.  I've handicapped for decades, high volume, and after all those years, turf racing emerged as my passion, and I especially like the 4 YO and Up group.  Perhaps it my European roots.  I love analyzing lots of data and big fields, unlocking the handicap into actionable information and occasionally finding gems that are undervalued by the betting public.  

I think it also fits my introverted personality to gravitate to a sport that has seen much better times, and gravitate within that sport to less popular athletes and less popular races.  I do this for me.  I'm humbled and appreciate when what I do is read and someone appreciates it, but I do this for the love of older horses with a great late turn of foot, running over a route of grass.  That simple.   It'd hard to believe but sometime in the next month I will reach 700 total blog posts since my first on 21 September 2008.  The milestone post to me is just a testament to my dedication to a sport that lets me down regularly: Hollywood and Arlington Park's closing, the throttling of race dates for Kentucky Downs, the drug controversies, it saps me.  I was an enormous Tour de France fan but the sport killed my love.  I've never let horse racing kill horse racing for me, but it's tried.  Luckily I'm an optimist who doesn't believe that Twitter is real life, that political differences shouldn't divide us and that race relations and opportunities for historically discriminated people have improved greatly since I was born in the 60's.  A $500,000 Grade 3 turf race.  These are the fun days in racing, let's get after this!

The Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf Cup G3; 1 1/16 Miles at Gulfstream Park

 

I would have liked this one with a full 11 horse field, but you get what you get.  These 8 I have broken into a top heavy top three, a middle three with at least two that could get to the Place spot in my exacta, and and two I'm tossing and I feel pretty safe about that.  That gives me a base handicap that lines up pretty close with the Morning Line (which I don't look at until my handicap is done).  That's not a good thing.  If this was a N3X or OC60K early race I'd most likely not spend the time on bet construction, but the handle will be big and its worth a shot at it.  

Boxing my top 4 for a $2 bet would cost $24.  Simple, except it offers a really good chance to take $24 and turn it into $24 or worse.  The risk-reward isn't great.  I do like the idea of betting my Top 3 and singling Lady Rockstar in the Place spot, a $2 bet for $6.   I like that and I like the value.  Do I ignore Lady Goddess? Hard decision when you are hunting for big value.  Hmmm.  Let's dive in.

First of all the Turf was listed today, Wednesday 25 January, as Firm.  Looking at the weather, I don't see that much precipitation that could change that.  

Shantisara (Ire), Chad Brown's 5 YO Mare , is in my top spot in light chalk. Her best efforts, Grade 1's at KEE two and three races back, represented best Beyers but was over yielding to good turf.  Last time out over firm, was so-so as the betting favorite at 1 mile over firm KEE turf, but very mixed messages on what sort of turf she may like and in France she ran over synthetic mostly. I gave her the nod because I like her late turn of foot from an outside spot. 

The QE II Cup G1; 16 Oct 2021 1 1/8 over Yielding Turf at KEE

Only two starts in 2022.Vanned off after the Jenny Wiley G1 at KEE where she Placed. 

This is second race back since that and she's been training consistent 4f since just before XMAS. 

I like Dalika (Ger) quite a bit and can see her wiring this race. Inside post, early speed.  She has wired 7 and 9 horse fields in her last three races.  Beautiful Gr/Ro for Trainer Albert Stall Jr.

The Cardinal Stakes G3:  1 1/8 Miles over Firm Turf; 24 Nov 2022 CD.

Wakanaka (Ire) comes into GP for Trainer Mott, 5 out of 7 in the money in 2022 as a 4 YO with a G2 Win and a G1 Place.  13 of 15 in the money over turf.  Late Speed.  Tactical.  

Fall Harvest Stakes $317K; 1 Mile over Firm Turf, Breeders' Cup Saturday  5 Nov 2022.  

Of my top three, I could make a strong case for any of them.  Dalika and Wakanaka deserve top billing, but if Shantisara (Ire) returns to form, wow.  

I really only value down to Lady Rockstar (GB) and Queen Goddess for the exacta.  Lady Rockstar has big late speed and should get a nice outside look  late. Jumping in class, 11 starts and onbly $133,000 in earnings.  Last win was OC62K in June but did get Place a 1 Mile at GP on 31 Dec.

Suwannee River Stakes G3; 1 Mile Firm Turf

Queen Goddess is a 5 YO Empire Maker mare, comes in off win for Trainer Michael McCarthy.  

The Robert J Frankel G3:  1 1/8 Miles over Good Turf, SA 31 Dec; An embarrassingly easy trip.  Training sharply.  

I already tipped my hand to what I'm thinking about, but it's Wednesday and a lot can happen between now and race time.  Look for updates here or at my newly created Twitter handle, @TheTurk_Blog. 

Have fun friends.  I'll be back by Friday night with my thoughts on Race 12, the $1.0 Million Dollar Pegasus World Cup Turf International.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The Sunshine Filly and Mare Turf Handicap $75K at Gulfstream Park

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog.  For a blog that has been writing since 2008, I've taken the opportunity to revise my blog name again to simply this: The Turk: Turf Handicapping and Exacta Betting.  I wanted to clearly articulate the purpose of the blog and what the reader can expect.  These days, the Little Turk ain't that little anymore, and he has more on his mind these days than horse racing.  I'm also very infrequently handicapping dirt races and I don't get too emotional about the Derby Trail anymore.  I'm better at analyzing veteran runners than 2 and 3 YO and I like the field sizes on turf races typically more than the average field size over dirt.  It's that simple.  With Santa Anita cancelling today's card due to heavy rains over past week, Gulfstream or JRA was my logical choices for what is the lowest ebb in the turf pickings each year, January.  An ungraded stakes race with a bunch of veteran knockers, many of whom have limited turf experience is an exercise in chaos, and chaos brings the best payouts. Let's get after it!

 

The Sunshine Filles and Mare Turf; 1 Mile over (expected) Firm Turf for FLA 4 YO and Up

With State Restricted racing, it can be a real mixed bag. With this group, it's not shocker to see so many turf rookies as 5 YOs, the breeders want to add that to resume for their Mares. It'd also a mile, so stretching out isn't that much of a stretch out even for the runners who have mostly gone 6-7f. I'm focused on Class (this is a $75K race, most don't compete for $75), Distance cutbacks, Trainer Stats, Trainer/Jockey Combo, Turf experience and GP experience. As usual, no morning lines were looked at prior to the handicap and nothing was read, turf writing, aka bias.

Three of the runners to me were head and shoulders better than the rest;  Avow makes her only 4th start at the beginning of 4 YO campaign, a $300,000 purchase at KEE  in September 2020.  Late turn of foot. Pletcher's experience and numbers with first turf are good:  20% Dirt to Turf and 16% with 83 runners First Turf.  Pletcher/Ortiz 28% together at GP with 58 starts.  Distance should not be an issue.  

Crystal Coast is 5 YO Mare, 25th start, 19th on turf with 10 of 18 in the money and 3 wins.  Career best 79 Beyer last time out over the 1 Mile GP turf course in early December.  Class Jump, $129,000 in career earnings in 24 starts.  41% Trainer David and Saez in 17 GP races.  

Sugar Fix  is 6 YO Mare, running primarily without lasix.  11 Turf Wins in 26 starts, 8 wins at distance in 15 tries.  5 of 8 Win-Place at GP turf.  4 back a Kentucky Downs win OC 62K with 87 Beyer, followed by SA Show and 86 Beyer, followed by two early speed, late faltering efforts.  What will we get today is the question and how is Conditioner Hess prepping her?  

Sweet Dani Girl was just on the outside of that group. First time back since May 2022, Trainer Vaccarezza (also Breeder) is not good at.  Speaking of Trainer stats, just bad all the way around:  0% on 7 starts at +180 day layoffs, 0% on 3 1st Turfs, 0% on 5 tries Dirt/Turf, 0% Sprint/Route.  All that said and 4 YO Jess's Dream filly far from embarrassed herself in last two races, deep water with Grade 2.  Class isn't issue, 1st turf, distance jump, first GP, connection experience, those are issues.  Worth paying attention to the tote, looking for a price on Place/Show Bet. 

Don't Get Khozy and Mona Stella are tepid exotic level runners that have a chance to shock for a price.   Don't Get Khozy is 2nd turf starter in 47th outing.  2nd GP, 2nd distance.  Trainer Dobles and Jock Reyes 17% winners in 59 GP starts.  Class is good.  Seems like shot in the dark for connections.  Mona Stella is a 5 YO Biancone runner who goes blinkers off today.  Distance, Turf, GP all Ok.  Big class jump.  Only goes with 118 pounds. Early speed.  

I'm not sure what I'll do with this race from a bet perspective.  My Base Handicap differs from ML (not a bad thing) as my order of finish as ranked in Morning Line: Win-3rd, Place Tied 4th, Show 1st, Exotic  #1 2nd, Exotic #2 Tied 7.  

I like Crystal Coast and Avow of my top three.  I'm concerned about the trend of Sugar Fix's last few outings.  I'll be tempted to shy away from the overlay I think Sugar Fix is setting up to be, which is risky, but this is gambling.  2-6 OVER 2-6-4-3-9, a $2 bet for $16 is my tepid choice right now.  I will be watching the Tote and if I make a change I'll tweet from my new Twitter account, @theturk_blog

I don't like $16 Exactas like this.  It's far better over the long haul to limit the wager and make each win more compelling from an ROI perspective.  With that thought in mind, 6 OVER 2-4-3-9 for $8 is more compelling to me.  

It's important to remember, these horses are running in this race because this is where they are in life right now.  A couple of 4 YOs with aspirations for better, a few Mares looking to add this State race win over grass to their resumes, a few hard knockers still hard knocking.  Trainer intentions when looking at the conditions book is seldom more complicated than the scenario I laid out. Understanding why a horse is entered in  a race is linked to how it may actually do in that race.  Work your craft handicappers.

Have fun with it, Turk Out!

Post Race Analysis: The Unusual Heat Turf Classic at Santa Anita 1/7/2023

 

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog. 

This past weekend we had our first blog of the year, and our first exacta win of the year.  For new readers, this blog's main purpose is to handicap turf runners and then to develop bet strategies for exactas.    That's all I do.  I use to be a Superfecta bettor, Pick 4 and 6 guy, but I've limited myself intentionally to really refine my eye for runners over a route of grass.  

I'm a bit of an oddball with strong opinions.  As much as I love the writing of turf writers, I won't read anything about the races I'm handicapping before they are run.  I won't look at Morning Lines.  I absolutely won't listen to Fan Duel TV talking heads before I've decided my bet.  Bias creeps in everywhere and I just try to limit the amount of bias I have to deal with.  

So now that you know that The Turk is a weirdo (I refer to myself in the third person just to accentuate this), you should also know that I'm not the horse player I once was.  My day job requires the appearance of fiduciary responsibility at all times, and I gave up being a degenerate gambler some time ago.  I enjoy tearing down the past performances of older horses running over 1 1/8 miles over firm (preference) grass like others may like crossword puzzles or Sudoku.  I love the mental exercise of ranking the horses, which you'll see in my Base Handicap.  From my Base Handicap, I form m y bet construction.  Always exacta's, always hunting for value.  I like the pool sizes and I like studying larger fields and finding the the overlays as well as identifying underlay's and taking advantage of the betting public's mistakes. 

The Turf Classic $200K: 1 1/8 Miles on good turf.

There was no real science on this one.  Pre-race I said "...What might I do? $2 5-7-4 OVER 1-8 for $12 is tempting but I may limit my investment to $2 5-4 OVER 1-8 for $8".   The $8 limited bet returned a net $17.60.  It's a win by a neck, take it and move along.  

I'll be back this weekend with the Sunshine Filly and Mare Turf at Gulfstream Park.

Turk Out!

The Nomination Is In: The $200,000 Turf Classic at Santa Anita

Unusual Heat

 Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog, now in our 16th calendar year.  That handsome fella is Unusual Heat, the most accomplished sire in the State of California at the time of his death in 2017.  While he sired the Acclamation, he also sired many others including one I always enjoyed, the Unusual Q.T. You've been handicapping a long time when you see the names of their grandsires and remember betting them.  Such is life.                                                                                                                                                                                     Today we are handicapping the $200,000 CA State Restricted  Unusual Heat Turf Classic, run at 1 1/8 miles over the grass.  Santa Anita kept the races off the turf Friday to keep the track good for today.  I'm not sure what the turf conditions will be, but I'm expecting no worse than good but we'll see.  

The Morning line field of 9 was reduced to 8, with what most likely would have been the post time favorite, The Chosen Vron, defecting to Race 1's Cal Cup Sprint.  That leaves a wonky group that isn't quite much better than $75K allowance Class.  That's OK, we don't handicap who isn't here, just who's running.  Let's get it on!

This will be a race I may not bet, it really depends on where the action goes pre race as I just don't see much overlay potential.  I have my top two with 67% chance of winning.  I'm an exacta player, so someone other than those two winning would make the payout spicier, and if both finished no higher than Show, I'd be onto something.  Aligato has late race speed and class, winning this event one year previously.  Along layoff had the 6 YO gelded Kitten's Joy return in late October and again in late November.   Third time back, and with a very sharp :59 3/5s at 5f  last workout, I'm thinking Glatt/Prat (35% winners at SA/ 26 starts) have a live one.  I really like the consistency of Carmelita's Man.  Also a late runner, 6 of 8 in the money in 2022 with 3 wins, a Place at this distance on this track in March. Hernandez, up, 27% winner at SA currently.  

Those two I think are the top two, so who could upset them?  Well, that's where it gets a bit dicey. Royal n' Rando is making a class jump, never won at the distance, only 1 turf win in 4 starts, no wins at SA, BUT 10 of 13 in the money in 2022 with 6 wins.  Won't be much better than 4 or 5 on tote board I reckon.  Coalinga Road, a 6 year old Quality Road (Turk's favorite horse all time) goes for Carla Gaines, winless in stakes in past year, 4% sprint to turf BUT 27% dirt to turf. J. Velazquez up for second straight race.  Distance shouldn't be an issue but like Royal n' Rando, should be in the 3-5 spot on tote board.  

After those two, Kings River Knight maybe the best option.  Taking a big class jump up, the 5 YO is 3 of 3 over turf. Distance shouldn't be an issue, synth to turf shouldn't be an issue, having Dettori up isn't a negative.  The gelded son of Acclamation is training sharp and ships in ready.  A late toss for me is Doc Adams.  He'll be bet but not by me for better or worse.  C+ is my kiss of death, be warned.

What might I do?  5-7-4 OVER 1-8 for $12 is tempting but I may limit my investment to 5-4 OVER 1-8 for $4.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out!