Thursday, January 12, 2023

Post Race Analysis: The Unusual Heat Turf Classic at Santa Anita 1/7/2023

 

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog. 

This past weekend we had our first blog of the year, and our first exacta win of the year.  For new readers, this blog's main purpose is to handicap turf runners and then to develop bet strategies for exactas.    That's all I do.  I use to be a Superfecta bettor, Pick 4 and 6 guy, but I've limited myself intentionally to really refine my eye for runners over a route of grass.  

I'm a bit of an oddball with strong opinions.  As much as I love the writing of turf writers, I won't read anything about the races I'm handicapping before they are run.  I won't look at Morning Lines.  I absolutely won't listen to Fan Duel TV talking heads before I've decided my bet.  Bias creeps in everywhere and I just try to limit the amount of bias I have to deal with.  

So now that you know that The Turk is a weirdo (I refer to myself in the third person just to accentuate this), you should also know that I'm not the horse player I once was.  My day job requires the appearance of fiduciary responsibility at all times, and I gave up being a degenerate gambler some time ago.  I enjoy tearing down the past performances of older horses running over 1 1/8 miles over firm (preference) grass like others may like crossword puzzles or Sudoku.  I love the mental exercise of ranking the horses, which you'll see in my Base Handicap.  From my Base Handicap, I form m y bet construction.  Always exacta's, always hunting for value.  I like the pool sizes and I like studying larger fields and finding the the overlays as well as identifying underlay's and taking advantage of the betting public's mistakes. 



The Turf Classic $200K: 1 1/8 Miles on good turf.



There was no real science on this one.  Pre-race I said "...What might I do? $2 5-7-4 OVER 1-8 for $12 is tempting but I may limit my investment to $2 5-4 OVER 1-8 for $8".   The $8 limited bet returned a net $17.60.  It's a win by a neck, take it and move along.  



I'll be back this weekend with the Sunshine Filly and Mare Turf at Gulfstream Park.

Turk Out!

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