The Nomination Is In: The Sunshine Filly and Mare Turf Handicap $75K at Gulfstream Park

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog.  For a blog that has been writing since 2008, I've taken the opportunity to revise my blog name again to simply this: The Turk: Turf Handicapping and Exacta Betting.  I wanted to clearly articulate the purpose of the blog and what the reader can expect.  These days, the Little Turk ain't that little anymore, and he has more on his mind these days than horse racing.  I'm also very infrequently handicapping dirt races and I don't get too emotional about the Derby Trail anymore.  I'm better at analyzing veteran runners than 2 and 3 YO and I like the field sizes on turf races typically more than the average field size over dirt.  It's that simple.  With Santa Anita cancelling today's card due to heavy rains over past week, Gulfstream or JRA was my logical choices for what is the lowest ebb in the turf pickings each year, January.  An ungraded stakes race with a bunch of veteran knockers, many of whom have limited turf experience is an exercise in chaos, and chaos brings the best payouts. Let's get after it!

 

The Sunshine Filles and Mare Turf; 1 Mile over (expected) Firm Turf for FLA 4 YO and Up

With State Restricted racing, it can be a real mixed bag. With this group, it's not shocker to see so many turf rookies as 5 YOs, the breeders want to add that to resume for their Mares. It'd also a mile, so stretching out isn't that much of a stretch out even for the runners who have mostly gone 6-7f. I'm focused on Class (this is a $75K race, most don't compete for $75), Distance cutbacks, Trainer Stats, Trainer/Jockey Combo, Turf experience and GP experience. As usual, no morning lines were looked at prior to the handicap and nothing was read, turf writing, aka bias.

Three of the runners to me were head and shoulders better than the rest;  Avow makes her only 4th start at the beginning of 4 YO campaign, a $300,000 purchase at KEE  in September 2020.  Late turn of foot. Pletcher's experience and numbers with first turf are good:  20% Dirt to Turf and 16% with 83 runners First Turf.  Pletcher/Ortiz 28% together at GP with 58 starts.  Distance should not be an issue.  

Crystal Coast is 5 YO Mare, 25th start, 19th on turf with 10 of 18 in the money and 3 wins.  Career best 79 Beyer last time out over the 1 Mile GP turf course in early December.  Class Jump, $129,000 in career earnings in 24 starts.  41% Trainer David and Saez in 17 GP races.  

Sugar Fix  is 6 YO Mare, running primarily without lasix.  11 Turf Wins in 26 starts, 8 wins at distance in 15 tries.  5 of 8 Win-Place at GP turf.  4 back a Kentucky Downs win OC 62K with 87 Beyer, followed by SA Show and 86 Beyer, followed by two early speed, late faltering efforts.  What will we get today is the question and how is Conditioner Hess prepping her?  

Sweet Dani Girl was just on the outside of that group. First time back since May 2022, Trainer Vaccarezza (also Breeder) is not good at.  Speaking of Trainer stats, just bad all the way around:  0% on 7 starts at +180 day layoffs, 0% on 3 1st Turfs, 0% on 5 tries Dirt/Turf, 0% Sprint/Route.  All that said and 4 YO Jess's Dream filly far from embarrassed herself in last two races, deep water with Grade 2.  Class isn't issue, 1st turf, distance jump, first GP, connection experience, those are issues.  Worth paying attention to the tote, looking for a price on Place/Show Bet. 

Don't Get Khozy and Mona Stella are tepid exotic level runners that have a chance to shock for a price.   Don't Get Khozy is 2nd turf starter in 47th outing.  2nd GP, 2nd distance.  Trainer Dobles and Jock Reyes 17% winners in 59 GP starts.  Class is good.  Seems like shot in the dark for connections.  Mona Stella is a 5 YO Biancone runner who goes blinkers off today.  Distance, Turf, GP all Ok.  Big class jump.  Only goes with 118 pounds. Early speed.  

I'm not sure what I'll do with this race from a bet perspective.  My Base Handicap differs from ML (not a bad thing) as my order of finish as ranked in Morning Line: Win-3rd, Place Tied 4th, Show 1st, Exotic  #1 2nd, Exotic #2 Tied 7.  

I like Crystal Coast and Avow of my top three.  I'm concerned about the trend of Sugar Fix's last few outings.  I'll be tempted to shy away from the overlay I think Sugar Fix is setting up to be, which is risky, but this is gambling.  2-6 OVER 2-6-4-3-9, a $2 bet for $16 is my tepid choice right now.  I will be watching the Tote and if I make a change I'll tweet from my new Twitter account, @theturk_blog

I don't like $16 Exactas like this.  It's far better over the long haul to limit the wager and make each win more compelling from an ROI perspective.  With that thought in mind, 6 OVER 2-4-3-9 for $8 is more compelling to me.  

It's important to remember, these horses are running in this race because this is where they are in life right now.  A couple of 4 YOs with aspirations for better, a few Mares looking to add this State race win over grass to their resumes, a few hard knockers still hard knocking.  Trainer intentions when looking at the conditions book is seldom more complicated than the scenario I laid out. Understanding why a horse is entered in  a race is linked to how it may actually do in that race.  Work your craft handicappers.

Have fun with it, Turk Out!