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| Gentle Soul: Hodges Photography |
My handicapping has been a bit cool lately. It happens. Don't judge success over a short sample size, positive or negative. When you handicap, you are preparing who you think has the best opportunity to win, setting win odds for the field. Horses don't read spreadsheets. The base handicap is just that, a pace neutral view of the race on firm turf. Pace is clearly a significant factor and I capture those thoughts in my bet construction. What does that mean? The best horse over a route of grass is still the best horse and the Base Handicap will reflect that, but pace, post position, turf conditions, field size, recent form or trips, expected odds as set by the public (and not the Morning Line), these factors seep into bet construction. Two sides of a coin. So when I say my handicapping has been cool, when I review the results, I see that my bet construction more often than not is what was faulty, my failing or flukes, that matters not.
I've been handicapping for just short of 37 years. I know I can handicap. I seen just about every sort of pace, trip, angle that can present itself. ROI is really the only measure of one's betting philosophy and general competence. Do the things you do as a bettor return you money over a long period of time? Do anyone reading this blog, the answer is generally no, for the simple reason that the best bettors are focused on what works for them, the angles they work and their own investment strategy. Develop what works for you. I didn't land on Turf/Exacta out of thin air, I'm good at it. My ROI was the best at it. I know my ROI with Dirt 3 YOs trends negative and I know certain tracks where I slay it (Kentucky Downs, Santa Anita, Arlington (RIP)) and where I'm atrocious (Saratoga dirt). Do what works.
Let's get after this!
I just want to look at The Col. E.R. Bradley Stakes video to see Gentle Soul late kick Two Emmys.Col. Bradley 99K; FG 1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf, 21 Jan 2023
(best video I could find truncates the race to the stretch.)
The 4 YO Tiz the Bomb may ultimately be the most talented turf runner in this field, but the focus as a 3 YO was dirt glory, including an uninspired Kentucky Derby at 31-1. McPeek's runner showed great turf promise as a 2 YO Winning the Grade 2 Bourbon at KEE and Place in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. Hernandez was up that day at Del Mar as he is today.
Breeders' Cup J. Turf G1; 1 Mile on Firm Turf; 5 Nov 2021 Del Mar
So what to do with this?
Experienced turf runners like Two Emmys deserve the chalk and the bettor's support. The reality is he wins this race 1-2 times every five times its run all things equal. 8 of 10 in the money at FG, 3 of 4 in the money at the distance, 14 of 19 in the money over turf. I consider him class neutral. His tactical early speed and his inside post should position him well.
6 YO gelded Gentle Soul makes only his 11th start and 6th on turf where he has 3 wins in 5 tries. Good early speed and the second best late speed of the group. A great late kick won him his career best Beyer over the Fairgrounds turf.
Tiz the Bomb again is only 4 and has shown exceptional promise on Turf and not so much on dirt. It makes sense for McPeek to bring him back to grass and be patient with him. His third start on grass since July, I toss the first effort and his last back in August was an improvement. Sent to the farm to freshen and then consistent training at FG since mid July. McPeek's numbers off this layoff are only 6% on 18 tries and his only 7% in 71 Graded Stakes starts. You can't watch that ride in Breeders' Cup and not think he'll find his turf form again.
Pixelate, Bay Street Money and Corelli are the only other considerations for the exacta. Corelli has the best late speed and his outside post should position him well. Both Pixelate and Bay Street Money are veterans, with 27 and 16 careers starts. Pixelate has the biggest bank account in the field but not much more than Tiz the Bomb and requiring many more races and 2 more years. All are making slight jumps in class.
I'm discounting last year's winner 35-1 Calvary Charge who hasn't won since.
I'm going to single Tiz the Bomb and put Gentle Soul, Two Emmys, Pixelate, Bay Street Money and Corelli in the Place spot, a $2 bet for $10. Maybe I'll trim it to $8 but we'll see.
I'd be remiss to not remember my first cousin, Joe Toarmino, who passed away this week. Joe was born to my dear Aunt Rose, the woman who first introduced horses to me. Joe was a horse player and loved his annual trips to Saratoga. I only saw him once a year, but every conversation involved horse racing. Joe leaves behind a devoted wife, Colleen and three wonderful daughters, Alicia, Elizabeth and Andrea, brothers Russ, Michael and Christopher and sisters Kara, Peggy, Patty and Jane and others.
Rest in Peace in Joe. Cash those tickets.
Turk Out
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