Sunday, February 5, 2023

The Nomination Is In: The San Marcos Grade 3 at Santa Anita

 

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where we focus on handicapping and exacta betting of Turf Horse Races.  

Every year, when I'm mentally engaged, and that engagement has returned for me, I enjoy the progression of races , and the horse athletes.  It helps your handicapping tremendously to follow the flow of the Conditions Book  and where the Trainers bring their runners next.  Getting second and third looks at these horses really allows you to project ahead and find those overlays that every horse player needs to make up for the inevitable misses.  One I've been tracking is that beautiful Grey/Roan pictured, The Grey Wizard (Ire).  Motion and Velazquez have a lot of horse, only 2 races into the geldings 4 YO campaign, and already the resume is impressive:  A Place in a G3 and G2 and a very impressive  1 1/4 Turf Allowance win last time out here at Santa Anita (video below).  If you play the horses long enough you get to watch 3-4 year careers at best, and that's one reason I like turf racing as they tend to race longer.  My favorite part of the sport is watching horses like Dicey Mo Chara succeed, and horses like The Grey Wizard to emerge.  Each race is an opportunity for that, and the progression these horses will take through the calendar, across the meets, just adds to it.  It's a great sport if it can ever be managed in a more unified fashion.  Anyways, I leave those sorts of topics for more professional writers, and I stick to my thing.  Let's get after it!

The San Marcos Grade 3: 1 1/4 Miles on Downhill Turf Course for 4 YO and Up

 

I've added a new column to my analysis beginning with this race.  As I've always done, I adjust the Morning Line to percentage which includes track takeout, the ever increasing tack takeout, and from there I adjust the ML to 100% by lowering each horse by the 33% takeout that the ML's add to the win odds.  I'm trying to find apples and apples with the fair line, and while this method isn't perfect, it's helpful to me to make this conversion and look for the inconsistencies. Expect the Turf to be firm and the weather good.  I don't see any threat to turf conditions degrading. 

Let's take a look at some relevant recent video.

John Henry Turf Cup G2:  SA 1 1/14 Miles Firm;  1 Oct 2022


San Gabriel G2; SA  1 1/8 Firm; 26 December 2022





Allowance $73K N1X;  SA 1 1/4 Miles good turf;  20 January 23



Hollywood Turf Cup G2;  Del Mar 1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf; 25 November 2022





Masteroffoxhounds is my chalk, albeit light.  The win on this course at this distance in the John Henry Turf Cup gives him credentials.  Conditioner D'Mato and Rispoli, Up combine for 31% win rate at SA and Risoli was up for the John Henry.  2 wins last 13 starts.  7 of 7 in the money at SA, 4 of 5 in the money at the distance.

Dicey Mo Chara (GB) is one of the Turk's favorite runners in training currently.  $6,800  price tag with $430,000 in career earnings.  5 of 8 in the money at SA.   Powell and Hernandez, up, win 39% of the time together at SA. Hernandez is a 29% winner in 94 mounts this meet. Loved his last out San Gabriel which I broke down in this blog post.  

I already fan boy'd The Grey Wizard (Ire).  At 4 YO we could be looking at a star, but I'm not ready to crown him yet.  I think he's a legitimate win candidate here and will legitimately be overlooked by betting public in the top two spots.  That's a value proposition that I like to take a swing at when I see it.  Compare his allowance time (2:01 3/5s) over good turf to Masteroffoxhounds sub 2 min classic distance on firm turf and that equates to multiple lengths back.  

Avenue, Say the Word and Cash Equity (Fr) round out my potential Exacta players. 


 I'm shading down Prince Abama (Ire) at my own peril.  0 wins in 6 SA starts, no starts at the distance, but training sharper lately. I just don't put alot of stock in the Hollywood (why do they do this?) Turf Cup at marathon distance. One thing to note is the D'Amato/Prat 25% wins in 53 starts at SA but also Prat's current meet 7%.  

What to do with this:

I'm leaning towards not overthinking this  and going with $2 Exact with 4 OVER 7-9-10-8-6 for $10.
I think that's a mid probable, high reward value proposition especially if someone can shock for Place.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out! 

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