The Nomination Is In: The Santa Anita Handicap G1

 

Newgrange: Benoit Photo

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, now in our 17th year of writing handicaps and assembling bets.    While I primary write about Turf Handicapping and Exacta Betting, I still keep my dirt chops up to speed.  Thanks to the good people at The Thorofan who asked me to write for this week's Handicappers Corner, I'm writing about the Santa Anita Handicap this week.  

If you haven't seen, the race has been moved to Sunday due to rain concerns Saturday.  I'm handicapping as if it's a fast track and will adjust accordingly.  You'll find Scratches and Changes and Track Conditions here.  

I'm not a turf writer nor do I pretend to be one.  I'm just a guy with a red pen and an opinion on what's on the paper and what I see in the videos.  I have no special insights into the industry or the horse racing elites.  To me, that makes things simpler.  I jump into handicapping when the mood strikes me and I take a hiatus when I'm turned off.  I saw a few horse racing fatalities in person last year, grizzly ones, and I needed a break over the winter.  I'm glad to see Santa Anita moving the card around to try and avoid running such a prestigious race in bad conditions and the second guessing that would follow any breakdown. 

Let's Get After It!

Santa Anita Handicap aka The Big Cap:  1 1/4 Miles on Dirt

  

17 November 2023 CD; ALW $125,000 N1X 1 1/16 Fast Dirt 

Highland Falls (2 back) win as chalk.

13 January 2024 SA; 1 1/16 Fast Dirt San Pasqual G2;  Newgrange/Newgate/Mixto

4 November 2023 SA; 1 5/8 Fast Dirt Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance G2; Salesman (Ire) 

I can't say I love this as a betting opportunity;  Watch the San Pasqual and tell me if you see any kinks in Newgrange armor? Does he have an extra 1/8 of a mile is the only real question.  Last year's 7th with Dettori up had to have been a disappointment and D'Amato immediately cut him back to what looks like a comfort zone at least one panel or two less.  I put him as chalk but we won't be betting him there.  

Highland Falls ships in from Brad Cox, and the Godolphin runner has done little wrong last two out albeit in sheltered company.  He has a class jump to make from Alw/OC races but the Curlin in him bodes well.  

I only see Newgate and Salesman (Ire)  as the only other possible winners.  

Salesman has been training very sharply at SA for Mandella but this is first back since Breeders' Cup Saturday.  26 career starts for the 7 YO, 24 of which on Turf or Fake Dirt.  His widening win over a small field his last time out at an extra 1/8 of a mile was only impressive in how he was running with little pressure towards the wire.  Mandella has won this three times so don't discount him.

Baffert has two in the race with Reincarnate and Newgate.  I'm not sure what instructions he'll give Deltorri, but perhaps he should try something different and use alot of that early speed and see if it carries, but like Newgrange, I question his ability over this distance, going in a sprint just two back in early January.  

I don't think much of Reincarnate.  Mixto has 1 win in 9 dirt starts.  Sadler's Subsanador (Arg) is a wild card and a value add to exacta.  

So what to do with all this?  I'm going to make a low risk exacta bet of Highland Farms OVER Salesman/Subsanador and Newgrange, a $2 bet for $6.  

I'm the sort of horse player that doesn't need action bets and believes that the best way to improve ROI is to know which races to avoid.  I'm not thrilled with this race and given my druthers, I'd walk away but if forced to bet a $2 Win on Salesman and Subsanador for $4 doesn't bother me.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out!