Welcome friends to The Turk Blog where I write about turf racing and exacta bet construction. I've been a horse racing fan most of my life, but didn't seriously start to handicap until 1986, and I've been doing it ever since. The blog started in 2008 and continues on as a labor of love. I'd like to thank The Thorofan for offering me a chance to share my thoughts on this race with you today.
The Frank E. Kilroe Mile is a prestigious Grade 1 turf race held annually at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California. Named in honor of Frank Kilroe, a longtime racing secretary and influential figure in California horse racing, the race is contested at 8 furlongs over grass and is open to horses aged four years and older. It was raced at about the classic distance of 10 furlongs until 1987 before becoming a mile event. The event is held on Big Cap Day, Santa Anita Handicap, one of the biggest and most prestigious cards of the year at the great race place.
First run in 1960, the race was originally known as the Arcadia Handicap before being renamed in 2001 to recognize Kilroe’s contributions to the sport. Over the decades, it has attracted some of the finest turf milers in horse racing history, including champions such as Lure, Wise Dan, and Gio Ponti and the filly, Proviso.
The Frank Kilroe Mile remains a key race on turf racing calendar. It serves as an important early-season test for elite turf horses.
Santa Anita’s scenic backdrop and fast turf course makes the Kilroe Mile an early season turf racing kick off for this handicapper as the pickings over grass are pretty slim this time of the year, and its a good handle day with the Big Cap bettors.
You'll find scratches and changes here. The weather should be good with no rain expected until Sunday. I'm going to assume we are on the turf track and the turf is firm.
Let's Get after It!
1 Feb 2025 The Thunder Road G3: 1 Mile on Firm Turf SA. Air Force Red (Show), El Potente (W), Zio Jo (4th), Cabo Spirit (5th/9th)
26 December 2024 The San Gabriel G2: 1 1/8 Miles on Firm Turf at SA. Mi Hermano Ramon (Place)
So what to do with all of this? My instincts at the track would be to pass. I really think as I handicapped there is ~ 66% chance the top two bet horses finish Win/Place. The play for me here is to hope one of them finishes third.
1, 3 OVER 1,3,5,6,7 a $2 Exacta for $16. If "winning" is important to you, not a bad bet selection. If you want a long term ROI, tighten it up and take a stand: Drop Mi Hermano Ramon to Show and single El Portente and now you have 3 over 5-6-7, a $2 Exacta for $6. As your handicapping gets better, your hit rate will get better. Why 5-6-7, lower morning odds horses? Forget the Morning Line, build your own and look for horses that will be bet less on the tote board that have not so different odds than others, especially name recognition horses (Air Force Red, Cabo Spirit, Formidable Man).
Hello Friends and welcome to The Turk Blog, where I handicap and develop exacta bets, primarily over grass, but extensively over all surfaces. Next year is my 40th year as a handicapper, which is mind boggling to me as I still see myself as that young kid trying to understand how the races worked at Saratoga in the summer of 1986. As far as the blog goes, while I'm not an esteemed turf writer, I have been blogging continuously since 2008, so I am beginning my 18th year. Timing is everything in life, and when this blog started, Twitter was just a new thing, and long form blogs were very popular. Within a few years, the best bloggers in this sport mostly stopped writing about individual races because they weren't being read anymore. All anyone wanted was the picks, tweeted out. I never started this or any of my online endeavors to be the most popular, or the most monetized. I'm not sure if that makes me noble, and my cause true, or if my ambition was just low. No matter, I enjoy what I do and I appreciate the good people at The Thorofan, especially Laurie, who allow me the opportunity to submit late and ramble incessantly.
If timing is everything, post position must not matter? Oh but it does. Analyzing post position statistics for 1 1/8-mile dirt races at
Gulfstream Park reveals a significant advantage for horses starting from inside
posts. According to data from US Racing, in a sample of 34 two-turn dirt
routes, 32 winners broke from posts 1 through 7, accounting for approximately
94% of the victories. In contrast, horses starting from posts 8 and beyond
secured only 2 wins from 38 starts, representing a win percentage of about 5%. I looked at a larger sample size as well, 5 years, and the percentages were about the same: 94%-6%. Part of that is field size, but the key takeaway is that it's hard to win from the outside as the configuration of the track, with its relatively short run to the
first turn, often places outside starters at a disadvantage, as they must
expend additional effort to secure favorable positions early in the race. The one that comes to mind is Forte winning the Florida Derby from Post 11. Gun Runner in this race won from the 10 spot but the vast majority in this small sample size were from 6 in.
The Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes, inaugurated in 2017, is a premier
thoroughbred horse race at Gulfstream Park. The gaudiness of the prize packages quickly made the Pegasus World Cup a marquee event, attracting top talent to compete for one of the largest
purses in the sport, currently $3.0 MM. With that type of money, drawing elite horses, jockeys, and trainers from around the globe is possible.
The inaugural running saw Arrogate, trained by Bob Baffert, deliver a
commanding performance to claim victory. In subsequent years, the race featured
iconic horses like Gun Runner, City of Light, and Knicks Go, whose wins
showcased their exceptional abilities. The race’s timing in late January strategically positions it early in the year's racing calendar, offering participants a chance to begin their
campaigns on a grand stage in North America where previously Dubai was the best early season option.
I generally start with current form, which I use video for, but this group comes in off of all sorts of races, with only 13 starts total by this group since 3 November, Breeders' Cup Weekend. Watch how Gun Runner handled the outside post, note that very short run to the first turn.
It is cool but the weather should be dry. I'm handicapping like it will be fast dirt. You can find scratches and changes here.
The Pegasus World Cup Invitational G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Dirt for 4 YO and Up
What has Locked or any of the horses beyond the 7 post done to make you think they can pull off the win against the statistical odds against that post at this distance?
Inside of Locked with early speed(as measured by Timeform US Pace: Mixto, Saudi Crown, Newgrange, White Abarrio and Skippylongstocking. That's a lot of horses for the son of Gun Runner to run past quickly and establish a rail position. This is a six start horse that has never raced at Gulfstream, never raced at the distance, was a Show finish chalk at Breeders' Cup Juvenile. I started this analysis working backwards, what you are hearing me say is I don't have alot of faith in Locked, and don't see a reason to stretch on an overbet lightly raced, outside post. We are gamblers, the odds say move away.
So what and where should we look? I think a better gamble is on White Abarrio running at a track he's won 6 of 8 starts on, bouncing back under Trainer Joseph. Training well, training sharp, the 6 YO is in a great spot to get on the rail and be fresh at the end. The pick.
Saudi Crown should be the first turn leader. one win in three races at this distance, first time GP, 8 of 12 lifetime exacta finishes. Covering win and Place with him.
Crupi to me is in right spot and has one of the best stretch kicks. 7/14 Exactas on Fast Dirt, 5 of 11 exactas at the distance., the son of Curlin at 5 YO isn't jaw dropping, but 14 of 19 lieftime in the money and could add real value to the exacta.
Skippylongstocking is a pretty good exotic candidate if you are going deeper in the bets. Stronghhold ships in with Trainer D'Amato and the 4 YO is talented and could surprise. Same with Mixto, Trainer O'Neill with Dettori up, is a talented 5 YO that is winless in 3 tries at the distance, no exactas at the distance, No GP, but capable of big wins like his 22-1 Pacific Classic in August 2024.
Mystik Dan, 2024 Kentucky Derby winner, seems oddly placed in this race but I understand taking a swing at the prize. Sprint to Route for McPeek only 14% on 64 tries. Training sharp at GP and hopefully he can build off of this but I'm skeptical. The filly, Power Squeeze, also feels oddly placed and got a terrible post draw at 12.
I'm keeping the bet pretty simple:
4-2 OVER 4-2-5-1-6-10, a $2 Bet for $20. My aggressive bet is 4 OVER 2-5-1-6-10 for $10.
