The Nomination Is In: The Del Mar Handicap G2

Mr. George Strawbridge Jr: Augustin Stables/Buffalo Sabres Hall of Fame

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Handicapping and Exacta Betting. Today I'm primarily focused on the big prize money at Kentucky Downs, but with an eye towards the Breeders' Cup I'd be remiss in not looking closely at The Del Mar Handicap G2. You can find my blog for Kentucky Down's Nashville Derby here.  

Do what you love.  I love Turf racing and luckily I know I'm good at it.  How do I know that?  I keep stats.  Do you keep stats of your own hits and misses?  I didn't start keeping good records until I started this blog.  When I was younger I was more instinctive.  When I started keeping stats I realized I was good at Turf and Synthetic, terrible at dirt sprints and turf sprints, and much better with 4 YO and Up.  My stats varied widely between tracks too.  I learned what I was naturally biased towards and I doubled down on it.  

I still love a good dirt race, and I'm not terrible at it.  One thing I have done for a long time is to try to insulate myself from the biases of others.  When I do handicap these big dirt events, I know very little about these horses except what I read on the Past Performances and what my eyes tell me on video. Try it, really.  It doesn't mean I'm not a fan of the sport.  Of course I get misty eyed thinking about Cody's Wish and the back story, but I'm better if I block that out.  Anyways, Lets get after this!

Del Mar turf routes over 8 furlongs: the middle posts (roughly posts 3–6) win the most. Outside posts (7 and wider) drop off sharply, and they’re especially poor at 1 1/8 miles. Inside draws (1–3) can be very good on days when the temporary rail is set far out (e.g., 30 feet), but with no rail the distribution is more balanced across the middle. Practical takeaway: upgrade posts 3–6 for Del Mar turf routes over a mile, be cautious with 7+, and give extra credit to 1–3 when the rail is way out. 

30 Aug 2025; DMR; DMR H G2; 1 3/8 on Turf

  Tomlinson and Beyer Review

US Timeform Early and Late Pace

So what to make of all of this? To me it's about the horses coming off of long layoffs: Atitlan (26 May 2025), True Quality (8 Feb 2025) and how they fare versus horses heating up with 2nds off like Balnikhov(Ire) (27 July 2025) and Gold Phoenix (Ire) (9 Aug 2025).  

 5/1/4/9 OVER 5/1/4/9/11/7 a $2 Exacta for $40. That's just a first idea, I'd like to get that below $24. Have fun friends, Turk Out!