The Nomination Is In: The Preakness Stakes 139

2013's Preakness 138

Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I generally handicap Turf Races and develop exacta bets.  There was a time when I handicapped exclusively on the dirt, but times change, as do interests.  I like big fields and horses with a lot of data.  Today's Preakness offers neither, with the smallest field since the early 80's at seven, and the favorite, Kentucky Derby winner Mage,  starting his fifth race.  

I went to the Preakness Stakes just once, ten years ago.  It was cold and rained.  The Goo Goo Dolls, from Western New York just like The Turk, played in the infield.  My mother and sister were in the same hotel as me without any pre planning.  Trips to see graded stakes are some of the most relaxing vacations I've ever taken.  I sit and contemplate the horses and time stands still.  I don't believe in thinking about retirement before you actually retire, because as another famous Western New Yorker but Chicago native Marv Levy once said, once you start thinking about retirement, you're already retired, but that said, if I day dream a bit about it, I find my thoughts drifting to lazy days at the track.  Last memory of Preakness 138?  I stood in the valet line with Pitbull after the event.  He was surrounded by women and dripped suave.  La Vida Loca, DJ. 

Anyways, the chance of rain increases as the day goes on but I'm assuming the track will be fast and the turf firm.    

Let's Get after it!

Mage is deserving of the top spot, especially with less pressure from First Mission who scratched on Black Eyed Susan Friday.  At a seven horse field, this just isn't that fun a betting race unless chaos ensues. I think we can make a case or two for that.

I think National Treasure has a solid chance to win.  Good Early speed and strong late speed, from the one post, with blinkers on (Baffert 17%), could take and hold the lead wire to wire.  I have a soft spot for well bred Quality Road's. 

Red Route One will be flying near the end but should be lagging out of the 5th post.  

Blazing Sevens has been training very sharply for Chad Brown and also possess a strong late step.  

Perform, from the six spot, is a Good Magic colt like Blazing Sevens, and has good tactical speed  but overall slower than most.  Don't expect the pace to favor a win but value in the place or Exotic spots possible.

As we are gambling, I'm going to put National Treasure and Red Route One in the win spot, with National Treasure, Mage, Red Route One, Blazing Sevens and Perform in Place; a $2 Bet of 1,5 OVER 1,3,5,6,7 for $16 bucks.  If Mage wins I will perform a magic trick of making a big pile of dollars disappear.  Covering Mage in the win spot adds $8 to the bet, for $24 investment.  That doesn't work.  

Have fun friends.  Turk Out!