Saturday, November 7, 2009

The Nomination Is In: Breeders' Cup Saturday Breeders' Cup Sprint Grade I

That gorgeous Unbridled's Song son is Zensational, the Turk's heavy duty chalk in today's Breeders' Cup Sprint. He'll be facing the best field that he has ever jumped towards the wire against including Fatal Bullet, Godolphin's Gayego and Euro G1 winner Fleeting Spirit, along with a few wild cards like Join in the Dance and Capt. Candyman Can.

The picture was posted online by beausea34 at Expect three quarters of a mile in less then sixty eight and 1/2 seconds, yeah. Let's go!

Race 4 at Santa Anita Post Time 3:10 ET; The Breeders' Cup Sprint Grade I; 6 Furlongs on carpet fibers, shredded tires, blah blah blah, for 3 YOs and up.

Heavy duty chalk can work in your favor in several different ways; you can take a completely contrary position and hope for a loss, in this case looking for perhaps a 9-2 or 5-1 second bettor's selection -OR- you can fashion exotic tickets with one spot locked up, allowing part wheels or matrix betting instead of expensive and often unnecessary boxing. Whatever approach you take, be consistant, build your handicap and then work the handicap for value.

No chalk is unbeatable, but I like Zensational in this race. Five straight 100+ BSF's when running less then 7 furlongs, 6 of 6 In the Money on fake stuff, and some incredibly fast work, including a smokin' hot :45 1/5 at 1/2 mile this past week. Curious if he can match Midnight Lute's 1:07:08 in last year's Sprint.

Fatal Bullet is a horse I like in most situations and is the Place from last year's edition of this race as well. Coming in off a Grade III 6f win on Keeneland's version of fake dirt. Had a fantastic 3 YO campaign, 8 of 8 in the money but only 4 starts including today in 2009 and a lack of Grade I wins. 11 of 11 in the money on fake dirt and training well at SA going 5f in about :59 flat.

Gayego is not a horse I was high on as a 3 YO and I think Godolphin have done a good job making a sprinter out of him and enters off a romping Grade I prep win in October at Santa Anita. Gomez is up. 4 of 4 at the distance and 6 of 7 in the money on fake stuff. Morning line 2.5-1, I'm curious to see what way he heads on the tote board.

Fleeting Spirit (Ire) ran in the Turf Sprint at last year's Breeders' Cup and his connections take a different tack this year. Dettori is up versus normal Queally. 11 of 13 in the money on turf and a Grade I winner in July at 6 furlongs earning a 123 Racing Post Rating and next two Grade I attempts were very close losses. A wild card to be sure.

Capt. Candyman Can is my poor man's Hard Spun. Hard knockin' and that's a compliment. No wins in 2 starts on fake dirt and no turf starts. 3 straight 100+ BSF's and a King Bishop win through disqual and a 1/2 length loss to Fatal Bullet in October on Keeneland's fake stuff. Like the Candy Ride's . Morning Line of 15-1 is not right! Hedge up and never doubt guts.

Join in the Dance is a horse I honestly forgot all about. A ho-hum Triple Crown prep racer and a bad loser the last two times out including a 9 lengths Place finish in PA to Gone Astray. Major distance drop from previous efforts. Who knows?

Build a handicap and trust your handicap. Watch the tote board closely and don't worry about the weather. Have fun, Turk Out!

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