 |
| Million Preview Day July 2009 |
While I'm bummed to not be at this year's edition of Million Day, I know I'll be back soon and I'm still excited to play and be apart of the action. That's Little Turk and I hanging out on Million Preview Day 2009. AP gave away hats that day (Little Turk wearing) and I'm sporting a Santa Anita 2008 Breeders' Cup hat. There should be better horse hats available for fans, but sadly they are mostly junk.
In yesterday's blog posting I put up my thoughts on The Million and this morning I'm fleshing out my thoughts on at least the Pick Three that begins with Race 9, The Secretariat and continues on in Race 10, The Beverly D.
What am I looking for in Turf racers? I like to see late turn of foot, trip information for at least the last three months of races, gas conditions and distance that the horse has had the most sucess with, and class. I'm less interested in W-P-S results than the visual look of the race shape and what the horse was able to do with the trip and pace it was presented with. When judging Euros I use the Timeform information available and gather as much information as I can.
Let's work our way through the video handicapping of both races first.
Let's get after this!
Working backwards, relevant video on Race 10, the 1 3/16 Mile Beverly D.
The Diana G1 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf- Sistercharlie
New York Stakes G2 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf
Jenn Wily G1 1 1/16 Miles Firm Turf KEE
Belmont Oaks Invitational G1 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf- Athena (Ire)
2017 Beverly D Stakes G1 1 3/16 Mile Firm Turf
In Race 9, The Secretariat at 1 1/4 Miles for 3 YOs
Belmont Derby 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf- Analyze It and Hunting Horn (IRE)
Kent Stakes G3 1 1/8 Miles Firm Turf: Carrick and Untamed Domain. The former had no excuse while the later had a horrible trip.
Nasrullah Handicap 1 1/4 Miles Left Handed on Good Ground. Lucius Tiberius (Ire)
You'll find video of the American Derby G3 7 July 2018 at this link: Dubby Dubbie, Captivating Moon,Pont Du Gard and Real Story.
You'll find a scouting report on Lucius Tiberius and Hunting Horn here.
The cost to benefit ratio of any horizontal bet is the races that add uncertainty, and with that uncertainty, long prices in the Win Spot. In this sequence, Race 9 to me seems the most possible to produce a >10-1 Winner and possibly>12-1. Avoid the temptation to cover too many horses, as in my example a 5-2-4 combo at $2 is an $80 bet. I would rather lose $16 with a chance at winning three figures than bet $80 to make $80. I'm most likely settling on Lucius Tiberius and Hunting Horn OVER Sistercharlie OVER Robert Bruce, Oscar Performance, Spring Quality and Almanaar. I'd actually be OK to $32 but you get the idea.
Have fun Friends!
Turk Out!
 |
| Little Turk: Million Day 34th Edition 2016 |
No comments:
Post a Comment