Sunday, March 15, 2009

Post Race Analysis for Race Day March 14, 2009

The Turk had what he likes to call a mental health afternoon. After retrieving Kay from the vet, I had nothing to do except take care of my sick pooch, and watch the ponies. It was a good day, with a mixed bag of handicapping, as well as the biggest one day payout I've had in 2009. I don't want to be a windbag, so let's get right to it!

Race 4 at the Great Race Place, bankrupt Santa Anita Park: The San Felipe (Grade II); 1 1/16 miles on "pro-ride" for 3 YOS.

No big surprises. I was happy to see Pioneerof the Nile win impressively, but would have been more impressed if the field was a bit stronger. I don't see how this race tells us anything more about this horse then we already knew. I placed no bets on this race but would have lost the few exactas I had in mind, as New Bay collapsed after an impressive first 6 furlongs.

Race 9 at Fair Grounds: The Louisiana Derby (Grade II): 1 1/16 miles for 3 YOs.

The Turk felt good about this race. I loved the field and the more I studied the race, the better I felt, which is usually a sign that I will not only lose my bets, but be embarrassed by my choices. Not today! Readers of the Turk know that I'm not about the betting, and that exotic betting strategies don't interest me. I re-do the morning lines for probable finishes and most of the time I'm content with just seeing how it goes. There is one betting situation I like to take advantage of: The chalk who I feel confident will win and several other horses with OK odds of 3-1 or higher that I can fill tickets out with. I generally avoid expensive boxes unless its a 1o cent super. I felt really good about my top six horses, and I liked my one-two combo enough to anchor everything to them. Nearly six hundred dollars on less then 20 dollars in bets. I'd like to say that happens all the time but....

Race 10 at bankrupt Gulfstream Park, The Gulfstream Park Handicap (Grade II); 1 mile for 4 YOs.

I felt as good about Bribon(Fr) as I generally get, so this is more indicative about my skill level then the last race was. I had six dollars on three trifectas that I donated.

And the shocker of the day, Race 10 at Oaklawn Park, The Rebel (Grade II): 1 1/16 miles for 3 YOs.

My cousin Marge asked me on Facebook if I had any good Irish named horses to recommend to her. I told her Win Willy was a huge longshot that would pay over 50 bucks on a 1 dollar bet. Well, I was right and wrong. Win Willy did win but he paid $56.80 on a buck. Wish I would have got a piece of that action.

I don't think this means much. I think Old Fashioned and rider Dominguez thought they had it in the bag and nobody read that memo to Win Willy. Current form for the first Saturday in May starts about 1 weeks from now. Ramp up in a week, have a monster final prep and work fast and strong for 3 weeks, and if Old Fashioned does that, nobody remembers The Rebel in mid March. It is troubling, but not a show stopper. The track was listed as good. No excuses please. I tried to illustrate in the above spreadsheet how wildly wrong the betting public had this one.

And the Turk didn't handicap or watch this race, but the 11th at Tampa Bay Downs, The Tampa Bay Derby (Grade III), 1 1/16 miles for 3 YOs.

I'm going to have to sort this one out. General Quarters has flirted with my interest, and this one is more significant then what happened with Old Fashioned, as he just never fired. I really liked this race though. Musket Man was flyin'

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I was happy to see the Nile win Horse Racing impressively..