The Nomination Is In: The Man O' War G1

Verstappen: Keeneland/Coady Photography

 Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, focusing on turf racing and exact betting, and I am the Turk.  For those of you that don't know me, I started handicapping at Saratoga in the summer of 1986 and started this blog in 2007.  I like older runners over grass, as I find the data available on them, as well as their long careers as stakes runners, compelling.  I'm not that wrapped up in Triple Crown euphoria, but I watched the Kentucky Derby for the first time since 2019 and handicapped it for the first time in many years, and do I love the handle and the big fields.  Chaos pays.  I did win the Trifecta on the Turf Classic and I won the Exacta on the Kentucky Derby, but I only netted about $46 dollars across both.  I wasn't a very sharp bet constructor, but better than a sharp stick in the eye.

Today is more like the typical race I handicap, a Graded Stake older horse turf race, which I generally like between 1 1/8 miles and 1 1/4 miles in length to handicap.  I'm not a marathon handicapper and I'm not a one turn sprinter handicapper either.  Know thy self!

So what to do with this?  Lets start with a piece of very relevant video, the Grade 2 Elkhorn from KEE on 22 April 

I like how the four year old gelded Verstappen went eye to eye with the veteran Red Knight and found the will to pull ahead.  Don't underestimate the competitive nature in video handicapping analysis. Everyone else in the Elkhorn that is going here did what you would expect, running style wise.

I wanted to find some video on Warren Point (GB), the 4 YO gelded son of Dubawi (Ire).  This is over fake dirt from last October.  Good staking trip and great late turn of foot.  

I don't know if the Morning Line spread will hold, as I value Verstappen much more than the Belmont track handicapper did. I plan on putting Verstappen/4 and Warren Point (GB)/2 OVER 4-2-1-6-3, a $2 Bet for $16. Have fun with it friends. Turk Out