The Nomination Is In: The G1(T) Sword Dancer and the G1 Travers Stakes

Three Generations of Turk: 2007

 Welcome Friends to the Turk Blog, where we specialize in turf handicapping and exacta bet construction.  I was telling a co-Worker friend of mine this past week that I started using "The Turk" moniker because I was afraid that my employers would think I did not take my fiduciary responsibilities seriously if I was a gambler (and in my case gambler is lower case g.) How the times have changed in modern society, where just in my lifetime you couldn't get a corporate job with long hair, long beard and tattoos, or in my case, by being a degenerate gambler type.  We use to judge many books by their cover and we had the social constructs of the era guide our biases.  I don't know if it's better, or worse, but life is different in America, in everyday life, and horse racing is no different.  It's days like Travers Day that remind me of horse racing in the mid 80's when I started to attend tracks.  Perhaps fewer cosplay gamblers back then, but lively crowds nonetheless.  I'm not the old guy railing about change, just observing.

If your a parent like I am, the end of August is nearing the unofficial end of summer, with the kids going back to school soon.  While Little Turk is no longer the elementary school boy he was when we attended the 2007 Travers and he blindly picked Grasshopper who nearly upset the Kentucky Derby champ, Street Sense, I still think of Labor Day weekend next week as the unofficial ending of summer and I start to turn my attention towards Breeders' Cup.  The circle of life in a horse players year.

I have to think I'm not the only one that walks into Saratoga and thinks about the ones no longer with us.  I think about my Dad every time I'm there.  My last visit with my father was  Alabama Weekend in 2013, ten years ago.  What I wouldn't give to have a time capsule, but being there is the closest thing to having one.  

Anyways, let's get after this!  The Dirt Track is listed as Muddy Currently and the Inner Turf as Good.  Stay tuned here for Scratches and Changes and Track Conditions.  So far no scratches in 11 or 12.  

First up, the 7 horse Sword Dancer.  

The Bowling Green G2: 1 3/8 Miles on Good Turf, SAR; 30 July 2023

Today's seven horse field lacks much front end speed, so Channel Maker's game plan will most likely mirror the Bowling Green.  I don't see it happening with the extra distance and pressure from possibly Prat, up on Stone Age (Ire).

Where will pressure on Channel Maker come from? 

Watch Pioneering Spirit open up in the stretch last time out OC62K 27 July at SAR.  The horse has come a long way since a March gelding and  a claim out of Pletcher's barn and into Rice's.  6 of 7 ITM  in 2023.  4 Wins in 6 turf starts.  

Bolshoi Ballet (Ire) has the class, the connections, but current form after running at Ascot 29 July I question.  Feels more like step one of a  Breeders' Cup prep plan from Conditioner O'Brien.  25 months since last win.  

The beforementioned Stone Age (Ire) come back for Trainer Brown after running in Dubai in February.  Prat and Brown have racked up 98 wins over rolling one year at SAR, 21%.  Brown is 25% in 44 tries as 1st time Trainer and 30% in 191 starts on a +180 Day layoff.  His gaudy 24%/889 Turf Start and 27% in 1158 Routes and 22% in Graded Stakes in 342 starts are hard to put in context with other trainers.  I feel like the four year old is also starting a prep cycle for Breeders' Cup but I'd be inclined to back over Bolshoi Ballet.  

Absolutely staggering morning line of 6-5 on Stone Age (Ire).  He's the class of the race, but it is first time with Brown and it is first time in a long time.  I've got no choice at that price to go after him and see what comes out of it.  

I'm going to build an exacta, $1 Bet boxing the 5-3-1-7 Pioneering Spirit, Bolshoi Ballet and Soldier Rising and  Stone Age for $12.  

And in The Travers: 

The Jim Dandy G2; 1 1/8 miles over sloppy dirt at SAR 29 July.  

The Belmont Stakes G1; 1 1/2 miles fast dirt 10 June 2023

The Haskell G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt at Monmouth; 22 July 2023

The Preakness Stakes G1; 1 3/16 Miles on Fast Dirt 20 May 2023

Matt Winn G3; 1 1/8 Miles Sloppy Dirt; EIP.  11 June 2023

The Curlin Stakes $130K; 1 1/8 Miles SAR 21 July 2023.

Similar to The Sword Dancer, Forte gets installed as a huge Morning Line favorite, and I'm going to go after him too even though his chalk is much darker than Stone Age's.  

I've posted alot of video but to me this is less analysis and more tote board odd gambling.  I'm going assume the track is not fast as the rains are expected to get heavier this afternoon.  There are some big wet Tomlinson's in the field with exception of Mage and Scotland.  I'm tossing both from my exacta pool.  My value choice is Disarm.  Adds Blinkers, training well, slop win and the best price.  

$1 Exacta:  6-2-5-1 for $12.  Alternatively, 6 Wheeled OVER 2-5-4-1 for $4.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out.  

I wish I could go back in time....Papa Turk, the Turk, Little Turk, one day together again.  

2007 Travers Stakes