Saturday, August 28, 2010

The Nomination Is In: August 28, 2010; The Travers Stakes Day Pick Six

Horse racing legend, Ernie Munick, posted a simple statement today on Facebook: "Only so many King Bishop's in a lifetime." We follow a sport that has a long and rich tradition. Today is the 141st running of the Travers Stakes. Stop to think about for a moment: Two World Wars, a civil rights movement, a woman suffrage movement, an industrial revolution and another idiot Paris Hilton arrest spans that period of time. Seriously, how do you mark time? I wonder how many dogs I have left in my life, if I'll live to see my unborn grandchildren marry, how many champion horses will I have a chance to fall in love with and see in person? Pictured above is one of the Turk's favorite runners ever, Lost in the Fog, winner of the King's Bishop half a decade ago. Gutty, determined, accomplished and tragic. An owner that could have been my eccentric uncle and a trainer that never learned the word pretentious. Today's one of the great days in racing, enjoy it.

I was reading Bloodhorse this week and there was a quote in a story about Jerry Crawford, owner of Paddy O'Prado, winner of the Grade I Secretariat last week at Arlington. Mr. Crawford said "...When you see you can buy a Paddy O'Prado for $105,000, that tells you you don't have to go beyond that." It's a simple thing but it applies to life really: Don't overdo/overspend on anything because if you are good, if you're better than the next guy, you can get away with less is more. OK Turk, WTF? Friends, don't overbet and don't overcover is my mantra. You'll lose some bets but the ones you hit will be rewarding.

The Turk is a pretty successful pick three/pick four bettor and I have nailed a few pick sixes before but not with money on the table. Why? I don't like the outlay. I can afford it but that's not the point. Never bet more than you can afford to lose and I'm just more content picking softer targets and grinding out positive ROI.

While I often handicap Pick Sixes this is my first time in two years blogging one and the reason is very simple, it's a lot of work for a bet I'm not even going to place. Why today? Eh, life is short, how many King Bishop's are there left for me? let's get after it!

Saratoga August 28, 2010; The Travers Stakes Day Pick Six; Post Time of Leg #1 is 3:30 ET

I'm going to let the spreadsheets speak for themselves right now and I'll provide some color on my thoughts in the post raceday analysis. I narrowed my outlay on the Pick Six down to $96 and I could cut that even further by dropping the last race turf sprint claimer down to 3 covers.

I'll be betting within races and looking for some soft spots, as the defensive bettor in me knows the likelihood of the Pick Six win is wildly remote and I'd love to get back to break even. I'm an upbeat fella by nature so I'm going to take no more than $250 and limit my exposure to that.

The weather will be great and track conditions should be optimal. I like that very much! Build your own handicaps, ignore talking heads like me and enjoy. Turk Out!


Ernie said...

Thanks, Turk. OTC overrated (me) but I know you mean well.

Keep the passion burnin' and hope to see ya down the road.

The Turk said...

Anytime Ernie! You bring the passion all the time, it's infectious (but not like the clap).