The Nomination Is In: The All Graded Stakes Race 6-7-8 Pick 3 at Saratoga

Takaful: Robert Mauhar/NYRA

Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk.  That very handsome colt in Shadwell Stable silks is Takaful, not my top pick but an intriguing runner in today's H. Allen Jerkens, part of this first of several blog posts today related to Saratoga.

Travers Day at Saratoga is one of the great betting days of the year for Graded Stakes fans like me.  I know, I lose street cred by proclaiming myself a fan first, degenerate second, but I don't really give a s**t about street cred as a handicapper or bettor.  I care about the quality of my work and my handicapping, and I care about adding improvements to my bet construction and overall approach to racetrack investing.

I'm approaching, I'm reaching, I've already arrived at a new place in my life:  North of 50, set in my ways, my Little Turk on the doorstep of adulthood and I'm taking stock of the things I love to do.  I'm still clinging to my love of the horses and the races.  I've really enjoyed writing this blog for the sheer pleasure of it.  I'd like to think that people will return to blogs again after the pre-Twitter heyday, but I'm in it for the long haul and I'm in it for me and the people who enjoy these free thoughts.

I'm going to break Travers Day into bite sized nuggets.  The first post of the day is the Race 6-7-8 Pick 3 that includes The Personal Ensign, The Ballerina and the newly re minted Kings Bishop, the H. Allen Jerkens, all Grade 1s.  I'm usually not down with name changes, but how can you be against putting Mr. Jerkens name on anything?

The Friday/Saturday weather looks dry.  Keep your eye on the Track Conditions and Scratches and Changes prior to betting always.

I'm also unveiling a new chart look this week.  it's something I use as I prep to bet as post time approaches to help me identify under and overlays.  I've taken the Morning Line into Percentage.  Why is the morning Line >100%?  Track Takeout and Breakage (losses during rounding, retained by track).  I use the POST RACE version of my charts in real time to update post time odds and make my vertical bets (intra race).

Anyway, these three races are pretty chalky.  With Race 7-8 at 7F Pace and out of  the gate speed plays a huge role and Race 6 with a five horse field and a huge but vulnerable favorite.



Race 6 starts a Pick 3 (6-7-8).  Race 7 starts a P3 (7-8-9) as well as a Pick 6 (7-8-9-10-11-12) and Race 8 starts a P3 (8-9-10 and a $1MM P4 8-9-10-11).



I don't know yet what I'm doing.  I'm sure it will mirror what you see here but I may try and trim Race 8 down to 4 contenders and recover my value horses in Race 6.  This is the mix and match part of gambling that I use these spreadsheets to help me with as post time approaches.  I did it with red pen and paper for years but two computer monitors, a tablet a phone and I am becoming much more efficient.

Have fun friends- Turk out!