Say it isn't so....Larry?

While the Turk does not pretend to be an industry expert or insider, he does have plenty of opinions on the continuing decline in interest with horse racing and the plunging level of exposure the sport receives in the media. This troubles the Turk deeply and he wonders if the little Turk will still have a sport to blog about one day.

I akin Horse Racing to College Football. In College Football, the fans are rapid about the institution of a particular program. LSU, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State...It doesn't matter the names on the back of the jerseys, it's about the program that those jerseys represent.

I think it can and should be the same with Horse Racing. We will never see the days again when our equine heroes race as much as they did in the past. We have these animals for a few months of their 2yo careers, their 3yo seasons, and then many of them are gone. I loved a horse last year named Hard Spun. Most of you have heard of him. He was a tough horse, not the best 3yo in 2007, but game and arguably the forth best 3yo behind Curlin, Rags to Riches and Street Sense. To build momentum in the national media behind a star who has an 18 month career just isn't going to work. I don't need to work on Madison Avenue to understand that.

My analogy creates institutions around the great tracks. It creates rivalry races with champions from different meets. It creates intuitions out of our great breeders, our great owners, our great trainers, and our great jockeys. These are the people and those tracks are the places that endure year in an year out. Until the general public is enthralled by something they can follow, the sport will always be a curiosity in our current cultural environment.

I know this is a simplification, but complicated issues must be solved by a series of simple premises that are built upon each other. Sooner or later the greater good of the industry must be addressed by the various factions involved. It may take a forced participation, similar to a union that must be joined. A union makes decisions for the best of all employees (in therory), not just one individual. Owners/Trainers/Track Owners/Breeders must be joined to some greater common good eventually.

Which leads me back to Hard Spun. Hard Spun's trainer, Larry Jones, announced in late September that he hoped to be retired from racing by after the 2009 Breeders Cup. Larry is one of the true colorful trainers in the business today. Likeable and genuine in a way that is endearing to race fans. How many of you wished he trained Big Brown? I know I do. It's a true shame because losing Larry is our loss, a national exposure trainer that the media liked and looked to for marketing. The death of his filly Eight Belles is a real-life Greek tragedy, and Larry wore the episode on his sleeve. I can't imagine what he went through this year, with the scrutiny of outsiders to our industry questioning his methods, his motivations, his ethics.

The Turk knows there are no easy answers. The Turk also knows that our passion is an ostrich with its head in the ground hoping that bad times go away. There has to be people who place the industry over their own personal wealth and good. I don't know if that person or persons exist. What I do know is we are about to lose one of my favorite trainers and someone I had hoped would be a year in and out challenger to the best races for a long time.

Don't stay away too long Larry.

"It is what it is" from Steve Crist

I appreciate the blog kept by Steve Crist very much. From his blog I rip the following passage and he makes a great point regarding this past weekends races....


"....Despite slop and yielding turf at Belmont and the new Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita, Saturday's record 11 Grade 1 stakes at the two tracks were generally formful affairs, with 6 of the 11 going to favorites and 9 of the 11 won at 3-1 or less. The only jokers in the deck were the two sprint races, with Black Seventeen scoring at 23-1 in the Vosburgh and Cost of Freedom, claimed for $50k two starts back, upending three G1 winners to win the Ancient Title at nearly 6-1. Four of the six favorites sent off at even-money or less came through (Curlin, Zenyatta, Wait a While, Stardom Bound) while Ginger Punch (Beldame) and Mauralakana (Flower Bowl) both finished second."

I could have rambled on for several paragraphs, but Steve said it with an economy of words. It wasn't a good weekend for finding value. I guess that's why we have so many race weekends.

I am going to start Breeders Cup prep this week. I'm excited about my week as well. While the Turk doesn't like to talk much about this, I travel for work often, and this week finds me traveling to Louisville. Ok, I'm geeked. I have about 5 hours to kill between planes, and I'm leaning towards the KY Horseman's Park. The Makers Mark Distillery tour will have to wait.

DVD Review: On the Muscle

The Turk, being a bookworm, likes to read and learn. The library is stocked with horse racing history, horse and trainer biographies, and handicapping how to's. I have a collection of interesting DVD's as well, and in between races I thought I'd hit the highlights of my collection.

A DVD I thoroughly enjoyed is "On The Muscle: A year inside a thoroughbred racing stable" by Pony Highway Productions. It is an insider's look into Richard Mandella's barn from January through the Breeders Cup. The ups and downs, the hard work behind the scenes, the travel, the injuries, everything that you might imagine but never see is on display. The film covers the 2002 racing season and features Reddatore, The Tin Man, Pleasantly Perfect, Kudos, Ile de France, and a few others.

Mandella's style is very old barn. He's got a mid sized stable that he is close to each and every day and he is the trainer in the classic sense of the word. The other star is Becky Witzman, Mandella's assistant trainer. She oozes charisma and plays quite the compliment to Mandella's stoic figure.

I felt like a real insider watching this documentary. The interaction with the breeders, the owners, the horse agents, the track staff, the hot walkers, the exercise riders, and everything else really painted a more complete picture for me on what's involved to bring me my favorite athletes.

You can find the DVD sellers fairly easily. I bought it direct from Pony Highway. Now if I can get the Mandella Stein that was given away on opening day of the Oak Tree. I keep blowing the ebay auctions.

I rate 5 bails of hay.

I've posted the Breeders Cup Classic race from 2003 that highlights Pleasantly Perfect. Enjoy!

September 27, 2008: Decompression

The Turk spent a few hours today glued to the 2 inch video stream from soggy Belmont. I was surprised to see Ginger Punch fall after leading into the stretch. I look at the PP trying to figure out why I missed: I see the 78% lifetime winning percentage on Coca Beach. I see a win in his only race since 29 March. I see a horse acclimated to Belmont since winning 29 August in Saratoga and I see a string of solid works. This isn't the first time I've overlooked a horse who raced mostly outside of the United States. I had the horse 4th in a 4 horse race. He paid 7.10 to win and I lost nothing because I stayed on the sidelines. That said, I would have had some throw away tickets.

Race 8 demoralized the Turk slightly, but us handicappers have to have selective memory and let go of the failures quickly. I applied good handicapping logic, I picked underlays that I thought made sense, and I discounted the horses I thought had no chance. The people cashing the $49.60 tickets for Black Seventeen are some keen folks. I bet the #1 Horse, $2 to win and that was a mistake. I didn't get the price I wanted and I bet the $2 anyway. I had $6 in this race and it's no longer mine.

Race 9 is a race I picked the winner in, but that wasn't my objective. My two exacta plays failed. My identification of the money horses and the also rans wasn't that good. This one I just have to let go, because I look at the PP and the biggest wildcard faced was the yielding turf. The PP has too limited a sample size to draw conclusions from and I left my super-computer off.

Race 10 was a fun race for me as a fan. I didn't bet against Curlin for any other reason except to find a good underlay if he failed to fire in the slop. I tied Curlin to Wanderin' Boy for a $9.40 exacta. I netted $5.40 after subtracting out what in theory were still good win bets on Wanderin' Boy and Mambo in Seattle. I also feel good about identifying Merchant Marine as a threat today, with a solid show finish.

At Santa Anita I decided against betting today. I handicapped the 5th race but saw no one that could beat Zenyatta and the Zenyatta-Hysterical Lady exacta isn't exactly the stuff of legends.

The 10th race was a fan race for me. I've been teased by Tiago so many times since he won the SA Derby and last year's Goodwood. Still, I've lost more ticket cash on him then I'd like and I just wanted to watch. The little Turk liked Tiago today and he had a Well Armed-Tiago exacta, which we agreed we would have boxed. I was hoping to see Spirit One run better. Ahhhhh. Horses.

September 27, 2008: BEL Race 10

The Jockey Gold Cup. 1 1/4 main. 3 yo and up.

The money, like usual, will flow to Curlin. I love Curlin and I took a round trip drive of 5 hours each way with Sister Turk to see him at the Woodward. That said, i'm trying to figure out who can beat him for a good price. I see it as Curlin and and one solid other horse, Wanderin' Boy. I see a small second tier after Timber Reserve scratched, Mambo in Seattle.

I've been waiting like everyone else to see a dominant Curlin since his 'round the world trip to Dubai. His 110 Stephen Foster and 112 Woodward are better then everyone else and yet my fickle Turk soul is not satisfied. Shame on me. He's the chalk on this surface until he's beaten.

My second choice who has a good shot is Wanderin' Boy from the 4 post. He has a nice pattern of bullet works and 107ish Beyer's. He get's the "it" rider in A. Garcia today. He's running with the same weight as well. He's run low 90's in sloppy conditions. I'll peg him in low 100's today and he's my dark chalk. I need at least >5-1 and with a ML at 10-1 I should get it. I'm putting $2 to win on him.

Mambo in Seattle starts from the 9 post. He gets Edgar Prado for the first time today. The 3 yo is acclimated to Belmont and has four works, with a long of 7f two weeks ago and a mid tempo 4f work last week. This horse has moved up fast N2X in June to his G1 at the Travers. His ML is 7-2 and I think money will press him down to <5-2. If he wins, he'll win me as a fan, but I'm not sold yet. Let the money chase him.

I don't like the #1, #6 or #8 horse at any price. A.P. Arrow is winless in 2008, 2 of 13 in two years, and again running way above class. Not at any price.

I will consider a $2 flyer on #2, Merchant Marine. His ML is 12-1 and I have him pegged to run about 100 today. If he goes as low as 15-1, I'm on him.

Little Turk likes Curlin and I can't blame him.

So....

$2 to win Wanderin' Boy if >5-1 (probable)
$2 to win on Mambo in Seattle if >5-1 (unlikely)
$2 to win on Merchant Marine if >15-1 (possible)

I will bet a 5-4 exacta for $2 with no box.

September 27, 2008: BEL Scratches in Race 6

It's 40 minutes to post and I see that Unbridled Belle has scratched. I don't think I'll get the price needed to make a bet make sense in this race on Lemon Drop Mom. I thought I'd need >4-1 before U. Belle's scratch and that's just not possible now. The Turk is going to keep his $6 bucks and use it somewhere else if it makes sense. Now I can just be a fan....Go Ginger Punch!!!!

September 27 2008: BEL Race 9

The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational: 1 1/2 Turf. 3 yo and up.

A nine horse field, of which I think there are four legitimate winners:

Dancing Forever from the 3 post. 7 wins in last 24 starts. Consistant work since last race, a 94 Beyer clunker in which he finished 5th behind grand Couturier and Interpatation. The distance and surface should be to his liking and he's got early speed. I peg him at a 102 and I grade him an A-. I'll like him alot more if he goes off >7-2

Proudinsky goes from the 4 post. He jumps up 7 pounds today, and is coming off 14 days with no works. He finished 2nd to Big Brown with a 104 Beyer his last time on the track. It's a new distance for him and has a G2 win on yielding turf. His ML is 3-1. I'd like him more if it wasn't for his erratic work over past 8 weeks. I peg him a 102 and I grade him an A-. I'll bet to win at greater then 7-2.

Grand Courturier goes from the 6 post. The 5 year old has won twice in last 8 outings. He won at the same distance/slightly dryer surface his last start with a 104 Beyer. Has acclimated at Belmont and has had steady 4f works at moderate speed. His ML is 7-2. I'd grade him an A+ and call him my chalk if the turf isn't slop. I peg him about 104.

Strike a Deal is the horse I like today. He's won at this track on yielding turf in early 2008 with a 102 Beyer. He is jumping up 11 pounds and has a new rider. He just shipped in this week. The morning line was 6-1 and I'll take a two dollar flyer to win if he goes off at >6-1. I think he offers the best chance to turn 2 bucks into 12.

So....if I get the odds I want I'll post the following $4 in win bets:

$2 #3 only if > 4-1 (doubtful)
$2 #4 only if > 3.5-1 (possible)
$2 #6 only if >3.5-1 (doubtful)
$2 #7 only if >6-1 (probable)

And I reserve $2 for a 3-7 exacta and $2 for a 6-4 exacta

I have the two bucks in my back pocket from an earlier race if I need it!

Little Turk picked #7 to win.