Saturday, September 27, 2008

September 27 2008: BEL Race 9

The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational: 1 1/2 Turf. 3 yo and up.

A nine horse field, of which I think there are four legitimate winners:

Dancing Forever from the 3 post. 7 wins in last 24 starts. Consistant work since last race, a 94 Beyer clunker in which he finished 5th behind grand Couturier and Interpatation. The distance and surface should be to his liking and he's got early speed. I peg him at a 102 and I grade him an A-. I'll like him alot more if he goes off >7-2

Proudinsky goes from the 4 post. He jumps up 7 pounds today, and is coming off 14 days with no works. He finished 2nd to Big Brown with a 104 Beyer his last time on the track. It's a new distance for him and has a G2 win on yielding turf. His ML is 3-1. I'd like him more if it wasn't for his erratic work over past 8 weeks. I peg him a 102 and I grade him an A-. I'll bet to win at greater then 7-2.

Grand Courturier goes from the 6 post. The 5 year old has won twice in last 8 outings. He won at the same distance/slightly dryer surface his last start with a 104 Beyer. Has acclimated at Belmont and has had steady 4f works at moderate speed. His ML is 7-2. I'd grade him an A+ and call him my chalk if the turf isn't slop. I peg him about 104.

Strike a Deal is the horse I like today. He's won at this track on yielding turf in early 2008 with a 102 Beyer. He is jumping up 11 pounds and has a new rider. He just shipped in this week. The morning line was 6-1 and I'll take a two dollar flyer to win if he goes off at >6-1. I think he offers the best chance to turn 2 bucks into 12.

So....if I get the odds I want I'll post the following $4 in win bets:

$2 #3 only if > 4-1 (doubtful)
$2 #4 only if > 3.5-1 (possible)
$2 #6 only if >3.5-1 (doubtful)
$2 #7 only if >6-1 (probable)

And I reserve $2 for a 3-7 exacta and $2 for a 6-4 exacta

I have the two bucks in my back pocket from an earlier race if I need it!

Little Turk picked #7 to win.

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