Saturday, September 27, 2008

September 27, 2008: BEL Race 10

The Jockey Gold Cup. 1 1/4 main. 3 yo and up.

The money, like usual, will flow to Curlin. I love Curlin and I took a round trip drive of 5 hours each way with Sister Turk to see him at the Woodward. That said, i'm trying to figure out who can beat him for a good price. I see it as Curlin and and one solid other horse, Wanderin' Boy. I see a small second tier after Timber Reserve scratched, Mambo in Seattle.

I've been waiting like everyone else to see a dominant Curlin since his 'round the world trip to Dubai. His 110 Stephen Foster and 112 Woodward are better then everyone else and yet my fickle Turk soul is not satisfied. Shame on me. He's the chalk on this surface until he's beaten.

My second choice who has a good shot is Wanderin' Boy from the 4 post. He has a nice pattern of bullet works and 107ish Beyer's. He get's the "it" rider in A. Garcia today. He's running with the same weight as well. He's run low 90's in sloppy conditions. I'll peg him in low 100's today and he's my dark chalk. I need at least >5-1 and with a ML at 10-1 I should get it. I'm putting $2 to win on him.

Mambo in Seattle starts from the 9 post. He gets Edgar Prado for the first time today. The 3 yo is acclimated to Belmont and has four works, with a long of 7f two weeks ago and a mid tempo 4f work last week. This horse has moved up fast N2X in June to his G1 at the Travers. His ML is 7-2 and I think money will press him down to <5-2. If he wins, he'll win me as a fan, but I'm not sold yet. Let the money chase him.

I don't like the #1, #6 or #8 horse at any price. A.P. Arrow is winless in 2008, 2 of 13 in two years, and again running way above class. Not at any price.

I will consider a $2 flyer on #2, Merchant Marine. His ML is 12-1 and I have him pegged to run about 100 today. If he goes as low as 15-1, I'm on him.

Little Turk likes Curlin and I can't blame him.


$2 to win Wanderin' Boy if >5-1 (probable)
$2 to win on Mambo in Seattle if >5-1 (unlikely)
$2 to win on Merchant Marine if >15-1 (possible)

I will bet a 5-4 exacta for $2 with no box.

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