Saturday, September 27, 2008

September 27th, 2008. Belmont Race 8

The Vosburgh. 6F Main. 3yo and up.

Interesting race. I spent 20 minutes or so and when I was done, I lacked serious conviction, but have some thoughts that may lead to my betting strategy. The big wildcard all day is going to be the tracks condition. It appears that the rain will be heavy.

I have two A's on my list right now:

Lucky Island: ML 2-1
First Defense: ML 4-1

One B plus:

Fabulous Strike: ML 5-2

On C+:

Rockerfella: ML 6-1

Two C's:

Kodiak Cowboy: ML 10-1
J be K: ML 8-1

And a D:

Black Seventeen : ML 12-1

I have no strong feelings for Lucky Island. The horse is lightly raced, but has worked the past two weeks at Belmont for Trainer K. McLaughlin. The 4 yo drilled 4F in :47 2 weeks back. He's won 71% of his starts, but only no G1's.

First Defense is G1 class. Coming off of 2 building Beyer's including lifetime best 108. Has worked twice at Belmont in September, including :47 4f two weeks back.

Fabulous Strike has great early speed and leaves from the one post. The 5yo gelding adds 7 pounds this race. the horse took August off but drilled 5f three times in September. 66% lifetime win percentage including a G1 on this track at this distance in this race 1 year earlier. I like my B+ and will like him much better >3-1.

I'll watch Kodiak Cowboy and Rockerfella to see how long the odds get. It would be some stretch to see Rockerfella win with this company. I don't see win money on either of these horses as well.

My morning win bet thoughts lead me to say:
$2 to win on First Defense at > 5-1.
$2 to win on Lucky Island at >5-1 (doubtful)
$2 to win on Fabulous Strike at >4-1 and I'm naming this horse as my chalk.

I don't see myself betting to win J be K or Black 17 at any odds.

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