Saturday, July 25, 2009

The Nomination Is In: July 25, 2009; The Wonder Where Stakes at WO; 1 1/4 Miles on Turf for 3 YO Fillies

With Chantal Sutherland Up, Northern Kraze (pictured left) won $17.20 in taking the final leg of the 2008 Canadian Triple Tiara Series, The Wonder Where Stakes.

Today's edition of the Wonder Where features Tasty Temptation and Miss Blakely, two strong runners from the Woodbine Oaks and the coming back after her effort in the Queen's Plate.

Race 8 WO post time 4:33 ET: The Wonder Where Stakes $250,000; 1 1/4 Miles on Turf for 3 YO fillies foaled in Canada.

The Woodbine track handicapper did a darn fine job in the Turk's mind of setting the morning line. With the only two 90+ BSF in the race, Tasty Temptation returns with Husbands up to take on the girls in a field without Milwaukee Appeal. At 5-2, the morning line cannot be read as a mandate, but I believe the bettors will push her down to even money, and there is lots to like and lots to take pause with as well. Blinkers are off today, the lifetime win rate is only 1 out of 9 starts and her lifetime earnings on turf are $400 bucks. That said, depending on where her head is and her current form, she has the talent to sit slightly off the pace and make a move semi late. The talent is there and let the bettors run her down, as that presents opportunities.

Miss Blakely is coming back after a layoff since the Woodbine Oaks in early June. Her three turf wins in five starts is 2 more then the rest of the field combined, and she's 4 of 5 starts in the money on grass. Three straight 80+ BSFs point to consistency for the daughter of Smart Strike, and the horse has been training well at Monmouth on the turf. More then enough talent to be in the top three.

Forest Uproar looks to be the early pace setter in the race. Her last effort was an equal 1 1/14 where she struck the lead a bit early and settled for second in an N1X in late June. The J/T combo clips away at a 25% win rate. Looks to me to be a feast (top 4) or famine (out of the money) choice and I'm thinking feast.

Rounding out my superfecta, I have two horses I'll consider more on as we approach post time. Dance for Us from the 9 spot and Retraceable both returning from the Bison City at WO in late June. Dance for Us, with Sutherland up won that race by another run here, I Want Revenge sibling Flashy Got Even. Flashy Got Even is still sporting a Maiden after 10 starts.

There seems to be a stratification layer between the horses which I tried to highlight in my grades. There are no 10 super's so pick your tickets wisely and god luck.

Turk Out!

No comments: