Friday, July 3, 2009

Post Race Analysis for Race Day July 1, 2009; The Dominion Day Handicap G III at WO

The one that got away!

When you take a strong stand on one horse and you key your handicap with that horse finishing in a particular spot, its inevitable that the horse will occasionally let you down. Sometimes its a bad trip. Sometimes he just didn't feel like running. I'm trying to follow my own advice and let it go. It's not easy when you pick horse 2, 3 and 4 in exact order and your Win horse falters to fifth. Spilled milk, boo-hoo. The Turk will have none of that. That fine looking horse in the Cindy Pierson Dulay photo is Marchfield, the winner of The Dominion Day Handicap as he crosses the line winning the Autumn GII at WO last year.

Race 8 WO: The Dominion Day Handicap Grade III; 1 1/4 miles on fake dirt for 3 YO and up.

A couple of things I take from this: I was correct in taking a strong stand against Vacation. I'm not sure why the track handicapper set his Morning Line so high and I'm not sure why the bettors picked him over the fine local talent. His post time odds were ridiculous and made no sense.

Ice Bear was poised and in a good spot to fire to the front but just didn't go for Ms. Sutherland.

Sometimes you can have a pretty good handicap and still walk away empty handed. In order to have cashed a Super I would have had to included Cool Gator in my box. That wasn't going to happen. I should have and could have hit the Trifecta, but that would have required a four horse box and those are the kind of pricy bets I try to avoid, especially when the four I would have boxed were so well representing the top of the tote board. Let it go.

The Appleton Turk, bless her heart, has been infected with the horse betting bug. She took a strong stand with Michael's Bad Boy. She lost sure, but the horse was the bettor's 4th choice and her $10 win bet would have returned $70. She's given up lottery tickets in search of horse racing glory. For those about to rock, we salute you!

The Turk is already at work on two races at Monmouth for the 4th of July. I'm leaning towards Smooth Air in the Salvator Mile and I have no stong opinion yet, but Bancock at attractive odds might be my choice for the United Nations on the turf to win.

There is some great horse talk to be found at the the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance home page. Check out Rob at Amateur Capper and Geno at Equispace and you'll find two heavy hitters in the horse blogging world.

Turk Out!


Keith - Triple Dead Heat said...

great handicapping...and you're right that there's plenty of fine local talent at Woodbine.

A lot of U.S invadors have gone home empty-handed of late.


The Turk said...

Thanks Keith.

Woodbine is quality racing. I don't think my fellow Americans always appreciate the fine horsepeople at work up North. I'm a border dweller and have a deep respect for the quality of racing going on at Woodbine.