Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Post Race Analysis for Race Day August 2, 2009: The San Diego Handicap plus Video Replay of Jim Dandy, WV Derby, and Haskell

The Turk likes to wax poetic about creating handicaps and then working the handicap. It's a two step process in my mind. The handicap can be something akin to a crossword puzzle or Sudoku, a mental exercise -or- it can be used to build bets that hopefully take a small pile of money and turn it into a slightly larger pile of money. The dangerous trap horseplayers can fall into is the hunt for the big score. While they happen, there is low hanging fruit aplenty all over the cards at tracks everyday. I love the big score and I'm still on a high after filling my pockets on the FourStarDave Sunday, but those types of scores for a low risk bettor are few and in between. The San Diego Handicap at Del Mar on Sunday is the best example I can give of creating a handicap, working a handicap and having a nice return to show for it. It's not sexy, but its workmanlike, like those coal mining horseplayers pictured above.

Race 8 Del Mar Sunday August 2, 2009: The San Diego Handicap Grade II; 1 1/16 miles on fake and 'no safer then dirt' dirt for 3 YOs and Up.

The Turk took a stand on Sunday against the madness around Well Armed. I love the horse and was thrilled with his loose on the lead drubbing that he delivered in Dubai, but the horse hasn't raced since March and he was bet down to Secretariat/Ruffian levels. If he would have won, the risk/reward meter just isn't high enough in reward to justify it, and obviously if he lost...

So what to do? I looked exacta and I keyed everything to Informed winning. The current form of Informed is far superior to Well Armed, even if the horses aren't equals on paper. I worked my handicap. I placed four $2 exacta bets using my handicap, and I tossed the bottom two horses and Well Armed because again, winning with Well Armed second isn't really winning and the risk/reward doesn't justify the bet. $8 in bets returns $53 in winnings. Not sexy, workmanlike.

I put together a few other videos from the weekend races I handicapped. Enjoy. Turk Out!

The Jim Dandy

The West Virginia Derby

Haskell Invitational

Quality Road's Return in the Amsterdam Stakes

The Traver's is going to be quite a gathering!

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