Sunday, August 15, 2010

Post Race Analysis for Race Day August 14, 2010; The Saratoga Late Pick Three with the Grade I Sword Dancer

That handsome fella to the left is Sword Dancer (1956-1984) with his Trainer J. Elliot Burch. Fifty years ago the buzz that I feel now when I go to Saratoga to see the Woodward Stakes, with recent memories being the rock star buzz of Curlin two years ago, Rachel Alexandra last year, Quality Road and possibly I Want Revenge this year, but fifty years ago it was Sword Dancer, winner of the 1959 Travers and Woodward, Belmont Stakes, Jockey Gold Cup, and then returning to win the Suburban and the Woodward as a four year old. There are bloggers who do a wonderful job with remembering these historical runners, and I'm not one of them, but I do find it rewarding as a fan to take the time to learn about these horses from yesteryear and why fifty years later its still important to remember them. Let's get after it!

Saratoga Race 9 - 10 - 11 The Late Pick Three

I had modest goals when it came to yesterday's vertical Pick Three Bet and horizontal Race 10 Superfecta bet: Don't overbet and keep the bet on budget. I had a pre race budget of $50 for the sequence and I ended up spending $28 and winning $68. I did it by doing what I said I'd do and I stuck to my plan.

The Pick Three was my main target. I ended up way under budget on my Pick Three bet and I lost, but why I lost requires a bit of discussion. The races I thought I'd lose, the bookends of Race 9 and 11, NYS restricted turf affairs I won with three selections in each as my cover. Race 10, the Sword Dancer, I singled, as I believed the chalk Expansion would win. My second choice and last toss was Telling. To include Telling would have increased the bet by 50% to $36 dollars. That $36 would have returned over $220 dollars, so the risk/reward was where it needs to be, but I was being disciplined and not over covering, and I left this one on the table. It will happen, and you can't let it influence you or the following week you'll have choices galore in your tickets.

What saved my day was that I followed my game plan that I laid out pre race for my readers. I said the more I typed about the Sword Dancer the more it was apparant it was that this was a betting race and that a good price would emerge. I took my handicap and placed a win bet on the most legitimate >8-1 shot on the board, Telling.

The Superfecta paid over $14,000 but I would have had to go very deep with my ticket to get there.

Have fun, Turk Out!

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