Thursday, May 19, 2011

The Nomination Is In: May 20 and 21, 2011:The Black-Eyed Susan & Preakness Stakes Double

OK, I'm a big fat liar! I sit here on Thursday night before Black Eyed Susan day at Pimlico and I have not finished the back half of one of my favorite bets of the year, The Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness Double. As a working class fella I get busy sometimes,and my job doesn't seem to give a s**t about the stakes schedule. I'll finish my Preakness selections and update my chart tomorrow. Let's just look at the Black Eyed Susan right now and think about a low priced bet with a good chance for a high return.

With 14 starters in the Preakness and only 6 in the Black Eyed Susan , I have to tell you, the bet's value seems to me to have its value drivers coming from a long shot in the smaller field, while the larger Preakness field I'm thinking will finish sorta chalky. The Ol'Turk may be crazy, but hey, I refer to myself in the third person so how sane can I be? Lets get after this!

Pimlico Race 12: The Grade I Black Eyed Susan

I really hate small fields. I find small fields in Grade I racing to be the biggest sin of all. I had to get that off my chest.

I'm looking for value in my Double Bet and betting chalk on both ends isn't going to do it for me, so we'll assemble something that will either bring us fame and glory or leave us as a hot mess.

I'm looking to hang my chances on hot mess status with Love Theway Youare; Little Turk's favorite trainer, Myung Kwon Cho, brings his Arch daughter in off a nice N1X win at 1 1/16 miles on fake dirt at HOL. That came off a win at SA on the dirt. Seems posed to strike at a good price and a 416 Tomlinson wet rating doesn't hurt. Steps up big time in class and we'll hope she hits the wire first but don't bet your mortgage.

Royal Delta comes in off a last race best Beyer and training very sharply with a 5f :59 2/5ths at BEL 8 May and :48 at 4f this past week. Trainer William Mott places Lezcano up on the Empire Maker daughter and the two combine to clip along at 24%.

I think I'll only cover three and in my "all covers offer value" mindset I'll back Coax Liberty; Go Go Gomez is up for Trainer James Lawrence and the stakes winner has the most starts in the field at 10 and has been in the money 8 times, with today's wildcard being the full 1/4 mile she adds in distance from her comfort zone.

Today's handicap isn't for the faint of heart but with the Double Bet, I like to swing for fences a bit.

Have fun and enjoy the weekends races.

Turk Out!


The_Knight_Sky said...

Got to go with Hot Summer as the key horse in the exacta. Third race of the form cycle - about to peak for David Fawkes.

Mr. Fawkes in my opinion is the hottest ship-in stakes trainer in the nation.

Will look for the second horse to key around Hot Summer top/bottom after scratches are known. Good luck.

The Turk said...

I like Hot Summer quite a bit. Fawkes wins 32% of his Graded Stakes and when Dominguez picks a mount you have to take pause. I think she'll get bet down lower than I want for this particular bet.