Friday, September 16, 2011

The Nomination Is In: September 17, 2011; The Garden City Grade I

If you are 8 of 8 in the money on turf, win four straight with improving Beyers, against improving company, rip off :47.4 the week before, you get the picture on the blog, and that beautiful More Than Ready girl who races for breeder/owner Emory Hamilton is Hungry Island, my chalk in tomorrows Garden City Handicap.

I've been stewing on the eight horses entered for the inner turf affair for two days now. I don't think it's a great betting race so most likely I'll handicap out the Pick 4 and have some fun that way.

Let's get after it!

Hungry Island has been on a real tear, and everyone steps back, but she still seems to be on an upward trajectory. He big challenge will seem to come from the beautiful El Prado daughter, Winter Memories. Castellano gets the mount after Lezcano was criticized for the trip in the Lake Placid.

Speaking of trips, I see three key races to watch before settling on my handicap; The Lake Placid, The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (just to get perspective on More Than Real) and the Coronation Stakes.

2011 Lake Placid G2 @ SAR 21 August

2010 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf G2

2011 Coronation Stakes G1 17 June

Gather your information on scratches and changes and track conditions and get a feel for the weather, which should not be a factor.

It's my humble opinion that you shouldn't get too hung up on trip handicapping. I like to judge the late turn of foot and get an honest opinion if the race should count as something you can view as indicative or if the trip was god awful, do you just give out a mulligan.

I don't get hung up on Beyers either. I use them as a predictor, a datapoint that shouldn't be over stressed. I place great emphasis on current form, last two races, works, life time stats in the money for the surface, at the distance, at the track. I'm interested in how often in the last two years the horse has won. I'm OK with a horse that doesn't win, but you have to figure out where to layer that horse in. I'll say it again and again, Morning Lines have no place in handicapping. Trust yourself before letting someone else color your opinion.

I want More Than Real to bounce back but I'm not sure what to make of her; a dull effort in England in the Coronation Stakes, a dull Lake Placid, and slow and not improving works at 4f. I just can't back her right now. Trainer Pletcher is a big time winner so you can't discount, but I am tomorrow.

I'm not sure what to make of Theysken's Theory; I'm not sure of the distance and the turf condition and I think that tomorrows really a primer for her and her connections, who attracted Gomez to the mount. I'm layering her in somewhere between 5th and Show.

Pinch Pie went off at $18.90 in the Alabama, and lets not throw a parade for finishing up track, but she was flying in the last quarter mile. Anthony Dutrow is 27% turf winner and 22% on the Dirt to Turf switch, with the Dutrow/Rose combo winning 34% on 208 starts together the past year. I have a soft spot for Victory Gallop's.

Kathmanblu is Mama Turk's iron stove pipe lock this week. 6 of 7 in the money on turf and 9 of 12 lifetime in the money on all surfaces. Arch Support has super hot David Cohen up but the Arch daughter doesn't win much.

I'm just not that excited about this race as a betting opportunity. I don't see big value turning conventional wisdom on its ear. That said, it's one Turk's opinion and I encourage you to disregard hacks like me and do your own handicapping and take your own opinions.

So what am I gonna do with this effort? I dunno. I seriously doubt I'd bet this race stand alone. I'll spend some time on the P4 and blog about it if I have time. Tomorrow's efforts will be geared towards the Woodbine Mile card as well.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!


Brian Appleton said...

I think Winter Memories is easily the class of the field and will win if she gets a good trip. When I was handicapping the race I kept looking at Hungry Island's fantastic record this year and was considering her as my top choice until I watched a replay of the Lake George Stakes. That closing kick from Winter Memories was unreal!!
I'm hoping Kathmanblu can make a strong run on the board.

Tony Bada Bing said...

I think some small plays may be in order $2 exactas Hungry Island and Winter Memories over Pinch Pie and maybe a couple $5 exactas the other way Pinch Pie over Hungry Island and Winter Memories...

The Turk said...

Brian- Thanks for commenting and reading. Winter Memories is a heck of a good horse and is a bit classier than Hungry Island; I love Hungry Island's, well, hunger to win. I like the rider change on Winter Memories and would not be surprised to see her win.

Bada my friend, you make an awful lot of sense as always.

Thanks friends for readings and commenting.