Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Post Race Results for The Beaumont Grade 2 at Keeneland

"Past Performance is NO promise of future performance" said the bald handicapper
My last blog focused on a completely bias free handicap. My point, and quite honestly, my complete outlook on handicapping is "'s just numbers." Give me a Past Performance filled with horses who have some history, eliminate the hype and the bias, and I can usually do some good things with the handicap.

I'd add another layer to it; Give me a race where the track is fast, there are no European Invaders, and where I don't know anything about the horses, including their names, and I'd be at my best just analyzing the numbers. I don't pretend to be normal, so what works for me doesn't work for everyone, but I admit it, as hard as I try, bias creeps into my handicaps. Sometimes the race fan in me overrules the heartless and analytic handicapper in me and I find sentimentality having some role to play in my bet.

I wanted to find a stakes race last weekend and demonstrate my long held theorem. I choose the Beaumont, a Grade 2 3 YO filly sprint at Keeneland. I pay almost no attention to 2 YOs, especially fillies, and I'm not that into 3 YO Fillies until the Kentucky Oaks so when I say I knew nothing of these gals, I knew absolutely nothing.

I've been doing this a long time. It's not often you see a straight trifecta picked by a handicapper. My long time readers know I refer to myself as a "range handicapper", I predict the range (win, win-place, place-show, show-exotic, exotic, also rans) the horses will fall in within the order of finish and I don't get that hung up on picking winners. I'm an exotic player and it's a lack of emotion and bias that I credit my success with as a bettor.

It was a good handicap: On paper, the pace and the best horses seem to be evident, and red herrings like Renee's Titan and Premier Steps (Ire) didn't fool me.

Past performance is no indication of future performance. I am lucky to hit about 4 out of 10 Superfecta's. I sometimes go 0 for 10 and then turn around and hit 6 of 10. The only reason I eck out a positive ROI is by making good investments. I told my readers I wasn't going to bet The Beaumont: it was an exercise more than a betting opportunity for me. Betting my handicap cold would have won you $400.50 on a $2 bet. I never loose sleep over the money I leave on the table in situations like this. I am starting to hit my handicapping groove again and when I'm ready to invest real cash I'll let you know.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!

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