Sunday, April 14, 2013

The Nomination Is In: The Beaumont Grade 2 at Kee and Remembering Maram

Readers of the Turk know that one of the key things I preach is not to allow outside influences, horse hype, to interfere with your handicapping. It's a very difficult thing to do, as race fan's, we want to read and follow the sport, but to do so injects bias, other's opinions, into what we think.

Sometimes I like to handicap races where I don't have any preconceived notions of the runners. A 3 year old filly sprint race for example, like the Grade 2 Beaumont at Keeneland, provides me that opportunity.

It's just numbers to me. My handicapping of horses like this has to be, as I've seen very little video of the races these fillies have been in, nor have i seen any in person that I know of. The gals have an average of 5.45 career starts, a mix of dirt, fake dirt and turf, and plenty of work on the work tab. Numbers: as long as I have em', I'll handicap em'.

I have never done well as Keeneland since the switch to the fake stuff. the combination of limited knowledge of the runners, and a track I don't handicap well, doesn't encourage me to invest my betting capital with confidence, so I'll build a handicap, build a bet strategy, but in full disclosure, my not plop down real money.

I keep track of theoretical bets, something I have done for years. My ROI is higher on theory bets than actual bets and I think the reason is pretty obvious: The fear of losing isn't there with theory betting and it makes you a bit more daring, perhaps more reckless, and I know that some of my biggest real strikes in life is when I am a bit reckless.

Anyway, I'm not sure If I'm betting for real, but let's get after it!

Training at Hollywood for weeks now, Ciao Bella Luna returns to fake dirt and cuts back in distance, a 21% angle of Hollendorfer's.

Perhaps two safer top picks, Magical Moon and Judy in Disguise (GB) break in the middle of pack. Judy in Disguise likes to be right on the pace and has strung to very good races together, with Mike Smith up this time, third pilot in three races.

Al Stall's Magical Moon cuts back and switches from turf. As a 2YO, raced at KEE in a Grade 1 and was a game Show.

Chad Brown's Premier Steps (Ire) switches from turf, something Brown has a goose egg with in 11 tries, and Brown's fake dirt record is a goose egg as well. Brown is a wonderful young trainer, and I'd be remiss to not mention Maram, Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filly Turf champion, who passed away last year, far too young. Rest in Peace Maram.

Irish Presence is one I may have wrong: Gary Stevens up, the Midnight Lute gal had a bullet at Hollywood this past week and is 3 of 4 in the money on fake stuff.

Renee's Titan comes in off a poor dirt effort at 1 mile after winning on the dirt at 6.5 panels. Only 1 win in 5 tries on fake stuff. A closer, will have to navigate traffic too. I'm not sold.

Have fun with it friends, Turk Out!

Rest in Peace Maram

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

WOW!!! You nailed it with your Win, Place, Show!! I am definitely bookmarking YOUR page!