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| Factor This: Photo Amanda Hodges Weir |
The Turk put up another successful handicap and bet yesterday, but with the whopping $1.50 net earnings, I better keep my day job.
Recalling I handicapped The Fair Grounds, a 1 1/8 mile firm turf race for four year old and ups at of all places, Fair Grounds.
I said the following pre-race:
"... I like Michael Stidham's Synchrony or Norm Casse's Dontblametherocket to win. I gave the edge to Dontblametherocket mostly because he won the Col Bradley here a month ago, has 5 wins in 8 FG starts, 11 of 13 lifetime in the moiney over grass and 4 wins in last seven starts. This is the gelded son of Blame's 2nd off layoff, a 26% Casse angle. They are very close, so Synchrony wins the Base Handicap but I have Dontblametherocket current form as the key driver.
Synchrony is 5 of 5 in the money at FG with 4 wins, 14 of 18 lifetime in the money over grass, 6 of 7 in the money at the distance and has 6 wins in last 15 starts. As I mentioned this is the 7 YO son of Tapit's first start since early October but training at FG since early January.
I'll be building an exact and I have to decide for sure but assuming I include my three "B" horses and possibly my B- group as Place. I don't want to over bet so we'll see.
My B group isn't overpowering but all have good trainer/jockey combos and all are the type of 5-6 year old veterans who hang around Place-Show-Exotic race in and race out. I'm not really sold on the order. Factor This conditioned by Brian Cox has early speed and Cox/Bridgmohan have won 30% of 50 races over past year at FG. Cox is outstanding on turf/routes and graded stakes. Bill Mott's Classic Covey is a 60K ish OC runner primarily with a career best 100 Beyer in a G2 in March 2018. Off since mid October. Midnight Tea Time has 12 Place/Show finishes in 17 turf starts. Could be coming at the end.
Sailing Solo, $100,000 Smart Strike colt has only won $102,000 in his five years. I see promise but no production. 7 of 7 in the money in 2019. Early Speed will flash like Col Bradley where he led before finishing 5th, 5 back. Extra 1/16th today, same jock. I dunno. Ontario Canada Bred Tone Broke is slow but I always like to mention Fort Erie Prince of Wales runners. The 4 YO transitions from mostly dirt and is a huge wildcard. Bombs away candidate but don't bet the mortgage..."
I modified what I said just slightly and bet a 6 horse 1 dollar bet for $30 in which I won $31.50, a 5% ROI, well below my desired 40% baseline. My bet was 2-4-5-6-8-12 BOXED. (4-2 won).
Should I have bet at all? Let the Probables/Will Pay Table help you. If you are like me, its really hard to track the "Will Pays" scrolling across the side of the screen, but Twinspires, my unsolicited and not sponsored choice of betting apps, makes this easy to see.
On the App/Website screen it looks like this:
I made it a bit easier to understand by picking out my bet from the chart. You'll note the probable for 4-2 is exactly $31 on a $1 bet, and that is because I made these screen shots after the race started. I bring this up because you will be looking at this before the race goes to post and the numbers on some of the late movers may change.
So this exercise is, should I have placed my bet? Recalling the bet again
2-4-5-6-8-12 BOXED.
The bets in RED should NOT have been made. If the bet was successful, I'd make less than the bet was worth, a semi persistent problem of mine. The bets in YELLOW are marginal enough to not be bothered making.
I would say betting Synchrony/2 to win was a waste of capital. A Synchrony/Tone Broke/8 Exacta was possible and deserved a stand alone bet. You could say the same about Dontblametherocket/5 and anyone but Tone Broke.
Factor This/4 with the 6 or the 8 would have been nice, with the 12 marginal but acceptable.
I think the take away is the bet wasn't worth the risk. I felt pretty confident pre-race that Synchrony or Dontblametherocket would win and so did the betters sending them off $1.40 and $2.30 to $1 respectively. I should have walked away, the favorites even in this field size were bet down too hard. The scratch of early speed Sailing Solo didn't help.
My weakness is not as a handicapper but as a bettor. I am a good gambler in general but in hindsight this was a bad bet and I got bailed out not losing anything when Factor This won. What should I have done differently besides walk? Break the bet up and not box it lazily is usually always the takeaway. Always try to learn something. Watch the trip of Dontblametherocket. He was 3, 4 and then 5 wide. Watch where he shows up next.
About 10% through the 52 bet challenge and I have a 56% ROI and I'm up about $125 on the year. I still expect to be break even or negative by the end of the year, small sample size and all, and making mistakes like today will not help. I will focus much more and walk away when I see this pattern return.
Have fun friends, Turk Out!
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