The Nomination Is In: The Fair Grounds G3

Synchrony: Photo Michael Burns

Welcome friends to the Turk and the Little Turk Blog.  To those new to this blog, I started handicapping in 1986 and I've been blogging in a really dreadful fashion since September 2008.  I focus on races run over routes of grass primarily by four year old and upwards.  I don't really care about The Kentucky Derby or the Triple Crown except as a fan, I prefer the horses, geldings and mares who are just doing their best in relative anonymity in the dark times of racing.  It's very sad to me how far horse racing has fallen in the cultural lexicon and not even two Triple Crown winners could change that.  At the end of the day, the track owners, horse owners and the breeding farms all act in self interest and the ones that suffer  are the dwindling fans, backside workers and ultimately, the horses not worth much post retirement.  I digress.

I took a few weeks away from the 52 bets in 52 weeks series I am conducting as I just wasn't thrilled with the races available and the track conditions.  I preach walking away if you don't like the race conditions and that's what I did.  I will recap the series results at the end of this blog post, the Turk is off to a pretty good start in 2020 after the last race, the Pegasus Turf.

Let's get after today's race, expected over firm turf at 1 1/8 miles, The Fair Grounds Grade 3.




I'm not sure who set the morning line, but I saw the race very similar to the handicapper.  I don't look at the Morning Lines until my handicap is set, nor do I find them very useful these days with the ever increasing takeout skewing the odds, but what it tells me is I didn't really identify any overlays.  Sometimes boring means less volatility, less volatility means more predictability, more predictability with a larger field isn't a terrible thing for banging out low risk/OK ROI returns.  Not sexy, but a cash bulge at the end of the day is always more sexy than not having dinner money.

I'm not going to spend too much time on video today.  Only two horses enter off of a Graded Stake last time out, five come in off Col. Bradley $123K Handicap at Fairgrounds on 20 January. From a class perspective, this is a pretty similar group with just a few exceptions.  Aw heck, lets look at video of those five.


FG; 18 Jan 2020; 1 1/16 Firm Turf.  Col Bradley Handicap $123,000



I like Michael Stidham's Synchrony or Norm Casse's Dontblametherocket to win.  I gave the edge to  Dontblametherocket mostly because he won the Col Bradley here a month ago, has 5 wins in 8 FG starts, 11 of 13 lifetime in the moiney over grass and 4 wins in last seven starts. This is the gelded son of Blame's 2nd off layoff, a 26% Casse angle.  They are very close, so Synchrony wins the Base Handicap but I have Dontblametherocket current form as the key driver.

 Synchrony is 5 of 5 in the money at FG with 4 wins, 14 of 18 lifetime in the money over grass, 6 of 7 in the money at the distance and has 6 wins in last 15 starts.  As I mentioned this is the 7 YO son of Tapit's first start since early October but training at FG since early January.

I'll be building an exact and I have to decide for sure but assuming I include my three "B" horses and possibly my B- group as Place.  I don't want to over bet so we'll see.

My B group isn't overpowering but all have good trainer/jockey combos and all are the type of 5-6 year old veterans who hang around Place-Show-Exotic race in and race out.  I'm not really sold on the order.  Factor This conditioned by Brian Cox has early speed and Cox/Bridgmohan have won 30% of 50 races over past year at FG.  Cox is outstanding on turf/routes and graded stakes.  Bill Mott's Classic Covey is a 60K ish OC runner primarily with a career best 100 Beyer in a G2 in March 2018. Off since mid October.  Midnight Tea Time has 12 Place/Show finishes in 17 turf starts.  Could be coming at the end.

Sailing Solo, $100,000 Smart Strike colt has only won $102,000 in his five years.  I see promise but no production.  7 of 7 in the money in 2019.  Early Speed will flash like Col Bradley where he led before finishing 5th, 5 back. Extra 1/16th today, same jock.  I dunno.  Ontario Canada Bred Tone Broke is slow nut I always like to mention Fort Erie Prince of Wales runners.  The 4 YO transitions from mostly dirt and is a huge wildcard.  Bombs away candidate but don't bet the mortgage.

I think I'll assemble something like this:

  2-5 OVER 2-5-4-12-6-11-8   a $2 bet for $24.  Seems a bit pricey so I reserve right to reconsider and will post final bet in next blog.

And finally, the 52 Bets in 52 Weeks Series has another win in the Pegasus World Cup Turf on January 25.  Recalling from my blog the bet:

"...So what to do with it?  While it's not sexy, a $1 six horse boxed exacta of 12-2-3-10-11-1 for $30 should make money provided the top two horses on the tote board don't finish 1-2. "  




They finished 1-12 with Zulu Alpha at $11.80 to one winning over Magic Wand at $3.70 to one.  I said I needed a $30 bet to be justified with some luck and we got it.  The $1 exacta paid $88.30.

The ROI for the year is 64% with $124 in Net winnings.  




Have fun with it friends, Turk Out!