Saturday, February 22, 2020

The Nomination Is In: The Buena Vista G2 at Santa Anita

Carressa- Benoit Photo
Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk, established in 2008 to share horse racing handicapping and bet construction primarily.  Other blogs do a much better job of talking about the industry, the people, the events, I keep my view narrow and I hope my rabid fan base enjoys that.

The turf pickings were slim today. Yes, I am primarily a 4 Year old and Up Turf Handicapper.  It's the sort of racing I like, I'm good at it, and I love the amount of data I can find on these animals more than anything else.  I like data.  My past performance of choice is typically DRF Formulators but I have used Timeform US, including using them independently and simultaneously on races.  I'm not endorsed and I pay for my own products, and I just find the Formulator a comfortable fit.  I will shift to Timeform for certain meets and certain races, but I'm a mechanic at heart, I use the right tool for the right job.

While the pickings were slim, I like the makeup of this race, The Buena Vista G2 at Santa Anita, 1 Mile over firm turf.  By the way you'll find a link to track conditions and scratches and changes here.  I've seen mixed thoughts on the weather but I wouldn't expect soaking showers.

Let's get after it!

What's the first thing you'll notice?  I've spotted in my humble opinion a large underlay in the form of Jolie Olyimpica (Brz).  Hopefully the betting public takes the horse to 8-5 like the track handicapper did because a real opportunity presents itself there.  Let's take a look at some relevant video first.

The Megahertz G3:  1 Mile; Santa Anita; Firm Turf F and M 4/Up; 20 Jan 2020

Las Cienegas Stakes G3; 5 1/2 F Santa Anita; Firm Turf  4 YO and Up F and M; 11 Jan 2020

I love exciting new runners, but that's the fan in me.  The gambler in me doesn't understand how a filly making her second start in the US, coming off a small field 5 1/2 furlong race, gets installed as an 8-5 favorite.  Maybe she goes out and wins with daylight between her and rivals but I want to see results before I go fanboy.  Jolie Olimpica (Brz) should be a fun story this year, but today, I want her to stumble a bit.

I like Carressa to win.  2nd off break for Trainer Shirreffs and a last out winner in the above Megahertz at this distance and conditions.  Tactical speed, must maintain press with the leaders because there is much more late speed than she can handle.  Second turf start after switching surfaces.  Light chalk for me.

Brill on paper wins the class battle.  The $1 million dollar Medaglia d' Oro daughter is regal but so far the results are not there.  In the Megahertz she was in a great spot in the lane and had no response.

If you go two races back to the $82,000 Lady of Shamrock, 1 Mile over Good Turf at Santa Anita you see a more engaged Brill.

Boom or Bust.  Left Hollendorfer barn last summer after a not so good Black Eyed Susan on Preakness Day.  Trainer Chatlos is winless in 6 stakes over last calendar year and Smith jumped mounts to Jolie Olimpica.  Boom or Bust. 

Lady Prancealot (Ire) is a safe option at a good price possibly. Big Late speed.  4 of 6 in the money at distance, 10 of 15 in the money over grass, 6 of 7 in the money at Santa Anita.  Winner in December of 3 YO Grade 1 American Oaks at classic distance over grass.  Trainer Ballas wins 22% of time off of a break this size. 

Mulchy (GB) is interesting to me.  1st time lasix, 1st time North America, 1st time with Trainer Callaghan after leaving John Godsen's barn. Hot jock Rispoli is up, a 22% winner in 94 starts this meet.  I can't imagine a spot in exotic but very interesting to pay attention to. 

Mucho Unusal and Super Patriot round out my exacta possibles.  Mucho Unusal has good tactical speed and some sucess at the distance and over grass.  Place finish in the American Oaks I referenced earlier.   Trainer Yakeen and Rosario, up, have won 63% of 8 starts at Santa Anita.  In the money 8 of 11 lifetime. Super Patriot is Trainer Baltas other runner here, with Rosario hopping off for Mucho Unusual and Fuentes now up.  Late speed  but maybe a bit slow for this group.  7 straight in the money finishes.  Love the claimers aiming high. 

What to make of it?  I'll be paying attention to the will pays from the probables on Twinspires to assemble exactas.  I like:

$1 Bet  2-7-8-4-9 OVER 2-1-7-8-3-4-9 for $30.    I may eliminate some combinations but you get the idea.

Have fun friends!

Turk Out

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