The Nomination Is In: The Connaught Cup G2 at Woodbine

 Welcome Friends to The Turk blog.  I've been a handicapper since 1986 and a Horse Racing Blogger since 2008 with a general specialization of older horses running across a route of grass with exacta bet constructions.  I've been flexing my turf sprint chops over the last few weeks for a change of pace as I like to make sure I don't ignore my handicapping on these sort of races.  I've been handicapping for a long time, and my approach to how I analyze a race has been refined over a long period of time.  My influences are pretty standard for handicappers of my generation: Tom Ainslie, Brad Free, Steve Davidowitz.  My own derivative method is to break down these races for Early and Late Speed, Class, Distance, Form and Work, Jockey and Jockey/Trainer stats.  I video handicap when I have time and I feel like I need more context.  I block and I tackle.  What I don't do is handicap looking at the Morning Line, nor do I read articles about the races or the runners before I handicap.  I try to leave other's bias out of my analysis and only deal with my own inherent biases.  

Woodbine is the closest major track to The Turk's home base of Western New York.  I had the pleasure of going to the Fort Erie Race Track last week, the first time since COVID ended.  I learned to play sprints by playing Fort Erie ad nauseum when I was younger.  It's a wonderful track with an uncertain future.  

Today's 7f, 1 turn Connaught Cup Stakes G2 at Woodbine has a nice 10 horse field with a 9 YO favorite, Wesley Ward's Bound for Nowhere, to me sets up a great chance to bet against the old veteran son of The Factor.

Let's get after it!

Connaught Cup G2:  WO 7f on Firm Turf for 3 YO and Up

Years ago when I stopped handicapping with any foreknowledge of the Morning Lines, I learned that I was able to spot under and overlays easier.  That said, I had to develop my ability to handicap and set my own fair lines.  In today's race War Bomber (Ire) jumped off the page to me as an overlay.  Let's take a look at his last time out on the Canada Day holiday, the  1 1/8 mile Dominion Day G3 on fake dirt.  

Cutting back will only help, as the blistering 1:11 3/4 mile pace he's up for, just not much beyond that. Good early speed, should be forwardly placed.  20-1 Morning Line,  3 wins in five WO starts, 3 wins in 7 turf starts, winless in two  2023 starts.  I like for a win bet at the right price.  Jock Civaci jumps to Lucky Score, so he's most likely skeptical too!

Lucky Score and Dream for Tomorrow will be respected by the bettors. Lucky Score is moving up a furlong in distance (unraced previously a 7f) but is 4 of 6 Win/Place at WO and over turf and hit triple digit Beyer last time out, also on Canada Day, the Grade 2 Highlander, 6f over grass.  

 

That was a hell of a ride by Civaci to win at the wire at $14.30.  Dreams for Tomorrow has 25% winner Patrick Husband, up, for McGaughey who ships in. The 6 YO is cutting back 1f.  Should be tactical and within a few lengths of the lead at top of stretch and possesses excellent closing speed from there.     

Bound for Nowhere is my kind of horse.  The 9 YO won a G2 last year here at Woodbine but is off to a slow start in 2023.  Adding distance from past two race 5.5f affairs. Dangerous, but I'm skeptical.  

It's a deep race.  Churchtown cuts back 1f and is starting off an 80 day layoff, but training sharply at WO since mid June.  Attfield wins 20% of stake races but has only had 2 turf sprints over a rolling year, of which he has yet to win.  5 of 6 Win/Place over Turf, 2 of 2 Win/Place at WO.  

My last serious consideration is Dream Shake, only second turf start, a surface he is a maiden on.  Ran and won a 7f fake dirt OC50K on 2 July.  Fascinating, but I like to see some success first.  

So what am I doing with all this?  A win bet for War Bomber (Ire) as long as I'm >8-1.  My exacta will be Lucky Score wheeled with War Bomber, Dreams of Tomorrow, Churchtown and Dream Shake.  I'm ignoring Bound for Nowhere at my own peril, I just don't like anywhere near 8-5

Have fun friends!

Turk Out