The Nomination Is In: The Eddie Reed Grade 2

 Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, where I focus on older horses running over a route of grass, with exacta bet constructions.  I choose not to play a rather soggy day our East, and while I was interested in The Bowling Green at Saratoga, my concern for the turf conditions made up my mind for me.  Del Mar's Eddie Reed G2 is an interesting nine horse field.  My first time through the PP's and I didn't have a single horse that I thought deserved chalk or even a Turk rating of A.  700 plus handicaps blogged over 15 years and I don't remember a Grade 2  I was this torn on.  It's not that the field is bereft of good horses, and in fact Turk favorites Masteroffoxhounds and Dicey Mo Chara are in the field, just little excited me about current form of any of the runners.  We'll get to that.  I also don't want to sound like I'm complaining in any way, this is what I like: Big Field, Light Chalk, Chaos.  All those things can equal big rewards.  

Experience helps.  I approach every race with the same general mindset and I handicap in a very consistent manner.  A review of Early and Late Speed, Class, Distance, Recency, J/T stats, Track, Surface and Pace.  My red ink squiggles mean something to me, may not mean anything to you, but that's fine.  I never look at Morning Lines before settling on my handicap.  I found that they biased me, especially in my published handicaps.  I've matured as a handicapper to never let someone else's opinion to influence me.  I've been handicapping for over 35 years, I'm at the peak of my game, and it's this mindset that helps me identify underlays and overlays.  The problem with bet construction this far in advance of the race is the lack of live odds to fine tune my thinking.  I do that, I'm just sensitive to changing my bets radically from what I blog.  A bald, middle aged nerd is nothing without credibility.  

Speaking of Saratoga, Turk will be in the (club)house next Saturday.  It's been a loonnng time.   Let's get after it.

The Eddie Reed G2; 1 1/8 Miles over Turf for 3 YO and Up.

Many runners here enter off The G1 Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita 2 months earlier.  

Mackinnon last time out a beaten 4th at 1 1/16 miles over yielding turf OC $80K 3 BEL 4 July.

Dicey Mo Chara, Masterofforhounds and Gold Phoenix ran in a pace slog Charles Whittingham G2  at 1 1./4 Miles at Santa Anita 8 April 2023.  Gold Phoenix came back 29 May in the Shoemaker Mile and ran poorly cutting back two panels.  Dicey Mo Chara has run back twice, running three graded stakes in a 6 week period.  Masteroffoxhounds took a break to freshen and has been working sharply for D'Amato since late June.  

There was a time last year when I thought Count Again at 7 YO was the best Turf Miler in the US. First race since last year's Shoemaker Mile.  What form?  Who knows what the 8 YO has left.  Trainer D'Amato has taken 100 horses over the past year back from a +180 day layoff and has won 21 times. 

D'Amato has four going in this race. Does anyone think that's healthy for racing?  

So what top do with this?

I'm going to $2 Exacta wheel Mackinnon OVER Dicey Mo Chara, Masteroffoxhounds, Cabo Spirit, Count Again and possibly Handy Dandy or Balnikhov, either a $10 or $12 dollar bet that should pop a good payout.  It's far from an iron pipe lock, but this is gambling.  I like Doug O'Neill running the 4 YO son of American Pharoah back in under four weeks for his 2nd off a long layoff.  I like his early speed and I think returning to firm turf may expose a new level of top speed at the end.  Speculative. 

A $2 Win bet on Handy Dandy isn't out the question either.  5 of 6 Win/Place at Del Mar, 8 of 13 W/P over Turf.  Running back 3 weeks after a solid Allowance Mile win. Value.  

Turk Out!

Have fun friends, Turk Out.