The Breeders' Cup Win and You're In Kentucky Down's Turf Cup 2025 G2; Handicap and Video Analysis

Utah Beach making his move

Welcome friends To The Turk Blog. I focus on Turf Handicapping and Exacta Bet Construction. While I generally eschew social media. I noticed this morning quite a bit of distain for the exacta pools around the horse racing fandom. If you pay attention to my base handicap, ignore the bet construction, you'll find I pick winners and build a fair odds table that is much more accurate than a Morning Line and does a fair good job against the Tote Board. I use to bet Superfectas. I like to go horizontal and bet Pick X on cards when I'm not blogging as it takes a lot of typing time for that effort. My point is, use the base handicap and make whatever bet you'd like. I focus on Exactas. I get it, I've been burned too. I focus mostly on Stakes Races for the blog, big purse money too, races I expect a lot of handle on. That insulates me pretty good, but I get it. Whatever you do, have fun, otherwise why do it. I think the proliferation of sports gambling is what will kill this sport. It takes skill to handicap. The powers that be horde a lot of information. Betting the major sports is just easier. I'm almost 60, I hope to still be blogging and enjoying races until I'm dead, God willing, but will there be a sport for our grandkids to enjoy? Doubtful unless it reinvents the way it markets itself. That's the type of meaty question I let the real turf writers opine about, I'm just a degenerate gambler with a love of the horses that is 50 years old now.

 Let's get after it! 

6 August 2025; Kentucky Downs; Turf Cup G2; 1 1/2 Miles on Turf 

 3 August 2025; Ellis Park; KD Preview Turf Cup $300K; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf  

 9 August 2025; Colonial Downs; The Arlington Million G1; 1 1/4 Mile Firm Turf  

 9 August 2025; Saratoga; The Sword Dancer G1; 1 1/2 Miles Firm Turf- El Rezeen from the back with Davis, Up; gets Irad Ortiz Jr. today.  

 19 July 2025; Monmouth Park; The United Nations G2; 1 3/8 miles firm turf. (In Spanish- Look for 1 horse Tawny Port and 4 Horse, Place, Grand Sonata and 5 horse, Vote No)  

 19 April 2025; Keeneland; The Elkhorn G2; 1 1/2 Miles on Turf

Visualization of Timeform Early to Late;  takeaway, lots of late movers as you'd expect.

Tomlinson Review for Turf and Distance; Takeaway, no surprises where the Class leaders rank.   

 And a look at the Exacta Finishes over Lifetime, Turf, Distance and Kentucky Downs;

 What to make of all of this?  I like the grizzled Vets in this race.  Quite frankly I like my Base Handicap quite a bit, enough to box up a Superfecta if I was so inclined.  

If I'm looking for value it's El Rezeen who I like more than most (foolish or not). To win?  I'd be hard pressed top say that, but to spice up the Place spot.  

$2 Exacta 11-6-7-2-9 BOX for $40

Have fun friends, Turk Out!