The Woodbine Mile 2025: Turf Handicap and Exacta Bet Construction

Gas Me Up takes the lead in King Edward at WO

Welcome Friends To The Turk Blog, where I specialize in Turf Racing Handicaps and Exacta Bet Construction.  Everyone needs a POV and that's mine.  

Woodbine is about 70 miles from my house, just across the Canadian border and up the QEW.  It's one of my favorite tracks and I especially love days like today's Woodbine Mile Day, a Win and You're In Breeders' Cup event and a premier Grade 1.  Today's is a bit unusual as they are racing on the inner turf as the E.P. Taylor Turf course gets some work done on it.  The race starts just after the final of two turns (also different) so the horses have much of the straight to angle for first turn positioning.  I'm looking at Closers still to do well, but decent tactical speed to not be too far back coming into and out of the tight turns.

Let's take a look at some video:

2 August 2025;  WO; The Niagara Stakes $120K; 1 1/4 Miles on Firm Turf, Outer.

17 August 2025; Deauville (Fr); Prix Jacques Le Marois G1; 1 Mile on "Good to Soft" Turf

As we start to prep for Breeders' Cup, an explanations of Turf Classifications from Europe is in order:

Firm (Fm): The hardest ground type, usually seen in summer when there is little to no rain.
Good to Firm (GF): Slightly softer than Firm, thanks to light rain or watering.
Good (Gd): Considered the most balanced and fair ground condition, suitable for most horses.
Good to Soft (GS): Softer ground with more moisture, common in early spring or late autumn.
Soft (Sft): Wet ground that significantly slows horses, requiring stamina.
Heavy (Hy): The wettest, toughest ground where only the most resilient horses perform well.

Before we explain all of them in depth, note that it’s possible to have two types of ground in one description.
For example, Good to Soft, Soft in places. This means that the track is mainly Good to Soft, but there are places of Soft ground along the way.

The most important factor to remember is the more it rains the softer the ground.

Firm (Fm) Ground
If we had no rain, the ground would be classed Firm. This isn’t as common as it once was because the racecourses now water their course to keep the ground safe. Basically, take the impact out of the ground so that less injuries occur. You will normally get this type of ground in the summer months. Firm ground means horses can run faster, and that’s usually when track records are set.

Good to Firm (GF)
After Firm ground, we have Good to Firm. This is when we’ve had enough rain (or watering) to take most of the firmness out of the ground but it’s still on the fast side. This is a lot more common than Firm ground because racecourses water the ground, especially if there is no rain forecast.

From a betting angle, understanding the meaning of Good to Firm can highlight value. Some horses bounce off this surface and run personal bests, while others find it too quick. Looking at a horse’s past records on GF going can often reveal profitable patterns overlooked by casual punters.

Good (Gd)
This is when we’ve had enough rain to take all of the firmness out of the ground. It’s fair to say that this is the best type of ground, and usually the type of ground that suits most horses. It’s easy to run on for horses and produces big fields because it’s the fairest type of ground. Of course, you may have horses who like really Soft ground. However, they could still race on Good ground.

In comparison to Firm ground where they would have to withdraw. Good ground is the most common type of ground at all racecourses – it’s just the perfect ground to race on.

Good to Soft (GS)
Next up is Good to Soft Ground. This is simply Good ground that is holding more water. It’s as simple as that.

We usually get this type of ground at the start and towards the end of the jumps and flat seasons (out-of-season ground usually). It would suit the majority of horses. The only horses that struggle with this are those that run better on firm ground.

Soft (Sft)
This is when we’ve had rain and it’s softened the ground, but the track can take more. Soft ground is very common in the jumps season, when we get more wet weather and it takes longer to dry out.

Horses will find this ground a lot harder to run on than Good ground, and the races will be much slower because of that. There are however, horses that excel on soft ground, and it would suit them better than racing on Good ground.

Heavy (Hy)
Heavy ground is the toughest test a horse can face – deep, energy-sapping conditions demand extreme stamina and endurance. Races on Heavy ground are often significantly slower, favoring strong-staying horses over speed-focused runners.

source: CAANberry.com

4 January 2025; Kenilworth (SAf); King's Plate G1 (One Stripe); 1 Mile on Yielding Turf

2 August 2025; SAR; The Fourstar Dave G1; 1 Mile on Inner Firm Turf

16 August 2025; WO; The King Edward G2; 1 Mile on Outer Firm Turf 

Timeform Early/Late US PACE:

Exacta History:

Tomlinson Comparison  

 Dollars Per Start/Class Evaluation

So what to do with all of this?

13 September 2025; The Woodbine Mile G1; 1 Mile Firm (?) Inner Turf 

It's hard not to like Notable Speech (GB), with Appleby Conditioning and Buick, Up.  9 straight Grade 1 attempts, including a Show Finish as the Chalk in last year's Breeders' Cup Mile.  I like that he's here in North America and getting a tune up start.  

Gas Me Up with Prat Up for Conditioner Attard comes in off a win in the tune-up for this race, the Grade 2 King Edward.  That was run on the outer turf at one turn which adds a layer of complication to the analysis.  His last start on the inner turf was in June and he was terrible as the chalk.  

My four potential exacta candidates have little separation amongst them. I do like Win for the Money as potentially a winner here.  Local jock Husbands is up for local trainer M. Casse.  Only 1 win in 5 starts at the distance, 5 of 12 in turf exactas, 1 win at WO but also no exacta finishes in 3 tries in 2025.  Last two efforts at Saratoga on the inner turf were sneaky good, tow show finishes against quality.  Last year's winner looking for repeat.

One Stripe (SAf) is interesting for Trainer Motion with J. Velazquez, up. I have a general bias against Grade 1 SAf horses until they do something in NA.  Motion however is good at this:  29% on 21 tries with 1stNA, 20% on 35 tries 1st Time Training, and he's 22% in 58 tries off a long layoff, in this case 16 March 2025.  I'll cover Place but not the win.  I really think he's out of exacta but dangerous. 

My Boy Prince for Casse has big early speed but I'm not a fan of it here.  Last time out in Fourstar Dave on inner turf  he broke from 2 post and faded badly.  No wins in 5 tries at distance, only 2 lifetime turf wins.  3 of 4 in the exactas at WO.  Perhaps that early speed gives him edge to hold on with.  Also dangerous.

Wyoming Bill with Dettori up goes back to blinkers-on.  No wins in 2 tries at the distance and only 1 win in 5 turf starts.  Does have a win against OC$50k crowd on this inner turf at 1 mile in June.  Impressive in the King Edward.  

Leaning two ways on the bet:

$2 Exacta 2-9 OVER 2-9-8-3-5-6 for $20 

OR

$2 Exacta 2-9-8 OVER 2-9-8-3-5-6 for $30

I'm generally looking to beat the chalk but Notable Speech is clearly the class here and it's his race to lose. 

Have fun friends, Turk Out!