Saturday, February 28, 2009
The Nominations Are In (Part 1): Race Day February 28, 2009
The Turk is looking at three Triple Crown prep races today, at three different tracks. First up is The Stymie Handicap at Aqueduct, run at 1 1/8 miles on the Inner Track Dirt for 3 YOs
As readers of the Turk know, I'm not advocating a betting strategy with my posts. Instead I am ordering the field based on how I view the most logical outcome. From my ordering of the field I will then look for value on the tote board and create my simple betting stategies which I place small amounts of money on. My arcane sense of excitement is winning regularly while betting little.
My biggest flaw as a handicapper is overlooking the obvious. I overlook track bias often as well as current form. Knowing this, I try to tweek my handicapping each week to compensate.
In the Stymie, it would be easy for me to overlook the current form of Barrier Reef , possibly ignore the lack of current form with Researcher, or overreach on a foreign invader like Real Merchant.
All that said, I am after all looking for value and I'm not interested in placing down two bucks on the chalk to show. I think there are a few horses, Manteca and Judith's Wild Rush in particular that could win at >8-1.
"Order the field and watch the tote" Mrs. Turk tells me I mumble that in my sleep. By the way, that is Stymie (pictured above) when he was at stud. He was the foal daddy of last week's feature, Rare Treat.
In the second race of my day, I'm looking at is at Gulfstream Park, Race 9, The Fountain of Youth Stakes, reimagined at 1 Mile on very fast dirt, for 3 YOs'.
This is a race that personifies what I was rambling about: There are numerous winners in this field, so if you do feel complelled to bet, find value. I am going to slightly discount Notonthesamepage, who has been drilling well but unraced since January 3rd.
I generally discount the outside posts at GP somewhat, but i'm looking for Capt. Candyman Can or Taqarub (pictured) from the 7 and 8 hole to play a promienent role in the race. 8 of the 401 Triple Crown nominees are here, this will be a barn burner, and with that hard dirt, I would expect a big BSF to come out of this as well.
And the last race for this afternoon, is Race 11 at Turfway Park, the John Battaglia Memorial, 1 1/16 mile on fake dirt for 3 YOs.. For the uninformed, John Battalia is the former general manager of the old Latonia Race Course, which is now known as Turfway Park.
A current betting angle is finding races with horses that I believe have a greater then 75% chance to win or place and filling the boxed ticket in around them. I think that is very possible here, a series of boxed trifectas or supers.
I'll be back in a few hours to look at The Sham at the Great Race Place