Saturday, January 24, 2009
The Nominations Are In (Part 1: Florida): January 24, 2009
The Turk is a slow handicapping machine. I'm in sensory overload on days like today with the Sunshine Millions taking place in Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park. So many races, so many favorite horses running, what to do, where to start?
I'm going to start in Florida because it's in my time zone, and I'm going to handicap Race 8, the Filly and Mare Turf at 1 1/8 miles and Race 10, The Classic, at 1 1/8 on dirt (how novel).
Race 8: The Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf, 1 1/8 miles, for F&M 4 YO and up, bred in CA or FLA.
I don't have a bet strategy yet, nor do I often share those anyway, as that's not what the Turk is about. I grade em', I put together likely orders of finish, and I make 5 minute to post betting decisions that look to maximize the ROI on my 2 bucks. I'm not a whale, more like a pretty good guppy. I digress.
I think Wild Promises is the class of this race. Without looking at the Morning Line, which Turk shuns, I think that this girl will go off at odds only a bridge jumper would love (or Mama Turk, but again I digress). One of my favorite angles when I do bet is to wait for races with such a money magnet like this and either a. hop the train and hit a low risk, ok reward multi horse bet or b. look for someone to beat the chalk at a big price. Both angles are fun for me, but I like the latter better because most of the time you'll swing for the fences and lose, but every now and then....
I'll be honest I don't see a way to beat Wild Promises yet. I think Zee Zee could. I never hold the poor animals to blame for thier trainers, and while I dislike Mr. Dutrow as a fan, as a dispassionate gambler I'm impressed by the tainer stats. The horse hasn't been a winner, but she's fresh and has worked steady and regular. I like the Albarado/Dutrow combo to perhaps win at >3.5 to 1.
Just a hunch, but Peach Flambe I think will run well and could go off >10-1.
And race 10, The Sunshine Millions Classic, 1 1/8 miles on dirt for 4 YO and up bred in CA or FLA.
I could sing a slightly different tale of handicapper woe to you, but the Turk doesn't sing too well anyhow. I think this race has 5 legitimate horses who could take win or place and 8 of 12 who could argue for show money.
I don't think Delightful Kiss is starting in a good spot, and while I think the gelding is the best horse, I'm going to gamble against him winning. Instead, I'm looking for Atoned or Macho Again as likely winners, although Atoned seems more content to be second best in life. Tagg could have Dry Martini primed for a big race, but I like Hey Byrn as a legitimate longer odds horse and from left field I like Medzendeekron, owner of a 4f :45 and 2/5 and a 7f in 1:24 3/5's to maybe pull a shocker at >12-1. The trainer's turf to dirt is 23% but this horse is very unproven on dirt. I think it's worth a 2 buck flyer.