 |
| Woodbine Mile Photo by: Woodbine Entertainment |
Woodbine is a pretty short drive from the Turk's home, just up the QEW from where I live in Niagara Falls, NY. This premier turf race, The Woodbine Mile, shifted off of dirt in 1997 to the Taylor Turf Course, a top shelf route of grass. Is it the premier September race on the stakes calendar? I think it is although Jockey Gold Cup Day may have more total meat on the bone, and Kentucky Downs Turf Cup has its own special attractions.
I Was there and got to see one of my favorites, Rahy's Attorney win at a big price in 2008. The average win bet has paid $9.87 over the past 15 editions. I'm not sure if today isn't chalky, but there are some solid live and long candidates to choose from. I think I'll be playing exactas unless at the end of typing this analysis up I determine that the win bet risk is more appropriate to my thinking. Sometimes Win or Win-Place is the right answer if you can't assemble an exacta ticket that makes sense at the right investment level. I've been guilty too many times of chasing exactas and overpaying where a simple win bet would have been a fine return. If your a long term player who thinks about ROI over the course of a year or multi year, what does it matter who the return is made? I use to think, especially when I wrote these blog posts, my readers needed to see something wiseguy-ish, a sexy and bold choice. I got over that quickly and got back to what I do well: Pick winners, eliminate pretenders and assemble tickets. I'm about making more on the return than what the bet cost me to make (although I can still be a bit dumb sometimes if I get caught up in the moment).
Let's get after this!
King Edward Grade 2: 1 Mile Firm Turf WO
It's hard to ignore the strong first 2018 performance of Delta Prince over this Woodbine turf in late June. 7 of 7 in the money over turf, 6 of 6 in the money at the distance and the Woodbine win in the 5 YO son of Street Cry out of Delta Princess. 9 starts lifetime, distance and class remain unchanged but he does pick up 5 pounds from his Grade 1 win in the Fourstardave at Saratoga in mid August. Late speed but good early tactical speed as needed.
Divisidero was outkicked here after winning Arlington Handicap G3 in last time out. 4 Starts at 1 Mile: a Place and 2 Shows. 2 Wins in last 11. Nice price to win but the stars would have to align.
Fourstardave Handicap Grade 1: 1 Mile good turf SAR
Lord Glitters (Fr), an absolutely stunning grey, has lasix for first time, drops 10 pounds from last effort, a Grade 1 win at York as the chalk. Dropping is distance, comfortable on LH courses.
Skybet and Symphony Group Stakes $128K York (GB); 1 1/16 Miles LH Good Turf (Lord Glitters (Fr))
A bit about Lord Glitters here and the path the conditioner is taking her, a familiar path to fans of Mondialiste.
La Sardane (Fr), a filly, Vanish and Mr. Havercamp all went in the Play the King over a shorter race and yielding turf. The filly didn't care for it but the boys ran well.
Play the King Grade 2: 7f on yielding Turf WO
And here's Vanish winning the race 2 months back just before the Play The King effort, winning at $2.30-1 odds.
OC 40K (28 July 2018); 7f good Turf WO (Vanish)
Oscar Performance was pulled up after taking a bad step in the Arlington Million in mid August. He checked out fine and has been training sharply over Saratoga's turf for trainer Brian Lynch. 7 Wins in 13 turf starts but never Placed and only one Show finish. All or nothing? Here is the 4 YO Kitten's Joy winning his 2018 debut setting a course record at Belmont.
Poker G3; 1 Mile Fast Turf BEL (Corse Record 1' 31") with :22.79 final quarter. Oscar Performance
I don't have a good feel for what to do with far post Stormy Antarctic (GB). Also on lasix first time, also shedding 10 pounds, a class jump (albeit not much) and distance unchanged. 10 of 14 in the money at the distance and 16 of 21 in the money over turf including 12 of 21 Win-Place finishes. 5 of 5 in the money in 2018.
Prix Edmond Blanc G3: 1 Mile Heavy Turf LH St Cloud (Fr). Stormy Antarctic (GB)
Ahh, Bill Mott, the ultimate trap trainer. You have to go all the way back to 1997 when Mott had Chris Antly (rest in peace) up for a win with Geri. I have not been a big fan of Good Samaritan and maybe its uncalled for. I love the late turn of foot, the 5 of 6 in the money over grass, the 2 of 2 in the money at the distance, the one win at Woodbine in only ship here. What don't I like? A lack of signature wins. I'll draw a line through The Whitney, but The Met Mile? Eh. Blinkers Off, Mott wins 33% of these while his Dirt to Turf is 13% in 97 tries.
The Whitney Grade 1: 1 1/8 Miles Sloppy and Sealed SAR
Here's Mr. Havencamp's sire winning the 2010 Woodbine Mile: Court Vision, still one of my best Breeders' Cup bets of all time (Little Turk that is).
I will absolutely have $2 Win Bets on Mr. Havencamp and Lord Glitters (Fr). They are worth a gamble.
Delta Prince is the obvious choice but this is gambling. I'm not sure how I'll play yet but the investment will be small in this one for me and if forced to say:
Win $2 5-6 =$4
Exacta $2 3 OVER 9-7-8-6-5-1 =$12
Have Fun, Turk Out!
No comments:
Post a Comment